The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was inundated with water on Tuesday after storms dumped greater than a yr and a half’s rain in only a few hours, flooding roads in addition to the worldwide airport primarily based within the metropolis of Dubai.
Neighbouring Oman additionally witnessed heavy rains and flooding that killed no less than 20 individuals.
Hypothesis was rife on social media, linking cloud seeding, which includes the manipulation of current clouds to induce rain, to the unprecedented precipitation. However consultants say the report rainfall was possible brought on by local weather change.
Here’s what we all know concerning the causes behind the report rainfall and subsequent flooding within the UAE and Oman.
What occurred within the UAE and Oman?
The storm had initially hit Oman on Sunday earlier than it pounded the UAE on Tuesday, knocking out energy and inflicting flight disruptions. The deluge inundated homes, precipitated visitors chaos and trapped individuals of their houses in Dubai.
The UAE witnessed the heaviest rainfall on report, authorities mentioned.
The state-run WAM information company referred to as it “a historic climate occasion” that surpassed “something documented for the reason that begin of information assortment in 1949.” That’s earlier than crude oil was found within the energy-rich Gulf nation.
By the tip of Tuesday, greater than 142mm (5.59 inches) had soaked Dubai – dwelling to greater than three million individuals. Near 127mm (5 inches) of rain fell at Dubai Worldwide Airport, the place about 76mm (3 inches) of rain is regular in a whole yr.
In response to authorities Oman acquired round 230mm (9 inches) of rain between Sunday and Wednesday. The typical rainfall within the capital, Muscat is about 100mm (4 inches) per yr. Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia additionally witnessed rains.
What fueled the hypothesis that blamed cloud seeding for the rains in Dubai?
Reviews quoted meteorologists on the UAE’s Nationwide Centre for Meteorology (NCM) as saying Dubai flew six or seven cloud-seeding flights earlier than the rains began. Flight-tracking knowledge analysed by The Related Press information company additionally confirmed one plane affiliated with the UAE’s cloud-seeding efforts flew across the nation on Monday.
Cloud seeding, which was initiated within the Nineteen Nineties, has been part of the nation’s effort to unravel water shortages.
In response to studies, the NCM on Wednesday mentioned the seeding came about on Sunday and Monday, and never on Tuesday.
Omar Al Yazeedi, deputy director common of the NCM, advised the NBC information company that the organisation “didn’t conduct any seeding operations throughout this occasion”.
“One of many primary rules of cloud seeding is that it’s a must to goal clouds in its early stage earlier than it rains, in case you have a extreme thunderstorm scenario then it’s too late to conduct any seeding operation,” he added.
Rainfall is uncommon within the UAE and elsewhere on the Arabian Peninsula, which is usually identified for its dry desert local weather. Summer season air temperatures can soar above 50 levels Celsius (122 levels Fahrenheit).
The UAE and Oman additionally lack drainage techniques to deal with heavy rains and submerged roads are usually not unusual throughout rainfall.
Did local weather change trigger the torrential rainfall?
Specialists and officers have debunked the speculations that cloud seeding precipitated the rainfall.
“If that occurred with cloud seeding, they’d have water on a regular basis. You’ll be able to’t create rain out of skinny air per se and get 6 inches [152.4mm] of water,” mentioned Ryan Maue, former chief scientist on the US Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The deluge was possible because of a standard climate system that was exacerbated by local weather change, consultants say.
International warming has resulted in “terribly” heat water within the seas round Dubai, the place there may be additionally very heat air above, mentioned Mark Howden, director at The Australian Nationwide College’s Institute for Local weather, Power and Catastrophe Options.
“This will increase each potential evaporation charges and the capability of the environment to carry that water, permitting greater dumps of rainfall reminiscent of what we’ve simply seen in Dubai.”
In response to studies, the extreme downpours had been a results of a slow-moving storm that moved throughout the Arabian Peninsula and into the Gulf of Oman over a number of days. This storm transported considerable tropical moisture from close to the equator and launched it closely over the area.
The storm additionally appeared in forecast fashions days prematurely.
Large tropical storms like this “are usually not uncommon occasions for the Center East”, mentioned College of Studying meteorology professor Suzanne Grey. She cited a current research analysing practically 100 such occasions over the southern Arabian Peninsula from 2000 to 2020, with most in March and April, together with a March 2016 storm that dropped 9.4 inches (nearly 240mm) on Dubai in only a few hours.
As we speak’s excessive rain occasion in Dubai was clearly related to a synoptic configuration that elevated the percentages of extreme rainfall.
A slow-moving, positively tilted trough with a robust plume of moisture transport led to report excessive PWAT for April: https://t.co/vL3ZAbqkIH pic.twitter.com/Opoc8B8mRP
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) April 17, 2024
Local weather scientists say that rising world temperatures, brought on by human-led local weather change, is resulting in extra excessive climate occasions around the globe, together with intense rainfall.
“Rainfall from thunderstorms, like those seen in UAE in current days, sees a selected sturdy enhance with warming. It’s because convection, which is the sturdy updraft in thunderstorms, strengthens in a hotter world,” mentioned Dim Coumou, a professor in local weather extremes at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
What’s cloud seeding?
Cloud seeding is a kind of climate modification course of that usually tries to extend the rain or snow.
Cloud droplets don’t type spontaneously. For moisture to condense, it wants a floor to cling to. Inside a cloud, there are tiny particles within the air referred to as condensation nuclei, which give a base for moisture to connect to.
Cloud seeding makes use of planes and ground-based cannons to shoot particles into clouds making extra nuclei, attracting moisture. As soon as sufficient droplets merge, they turn out to be heavy and fall to Earth as rain or snow.
Small particles reminiscent of mud and dust typically play a key function in cloud formation and precipitation by offering surfaces for moisture to condense. Silver iodide can probably serve the identical perform. Different substances, reminiscent of dry ice, may be used for related functions.
The tactic, pioneered within the Forties, can’t create water from a transparent sky – particles should be shot right into a cloud that already holds moisture to get it to fall, or to fall greater than it in any other case would naturally.
Cloud seeding remains to be controversial within the climate neighborhood, principally as a result of it has been laborious to show that it does very a lot, and it’s additionally unclear the adverse affect it may need.
Governments in drought-stricken areas just like the Western United States and the UAE have invested in applied sciences reminiscent of seeding within the hopes of producing rain.
About 50 nations together with the US, China, Australia, UEA, Germany, India, Malaysia, Russia and Mexico make use of cloud seeding.
The US Bureau of Reclamation spent $2.4m final yr on cloud seeding alongside the over-tapped Colorado River. Utah just lately elevated its seeding finances by tenfold.
China regularly makes use of seeding for irrigation. It additionally used it through the 2008 Olympics in Beijing with the objective of holding the skies clear.