When Britain votes in a normal election on July 4, one individual will probably know the result earlier than anybody else.
John Curtice, a professor of political science on the College of Strathclyde in Glasgow, will spend Election Day along with his crew, honing the findings of a nationwide exit ballot. At 10 p.m., earlier than any outcomes have been counted, he’ll make a giant, daring prediction that might be introduced on nationwide tv: the winner.
“The stunning factor in regards to the interval between 10 o’clock and 11.30 p.m. is that no one is aware of!” mentioned Professor Curtice with a smile, elevating his palms into the air. “It’s that second once we don’t actually have a authorities.”
Whereas he’s proper that nobody will know the ultimate tally till outcomes roll in from Britain’s 650 constituencies, up to now six normal elections his crew’s exit ballot has proved strikingly correct, accurately predicting the most important celebration each time. In 5 of the six, the margin of error for that forecast was 5 parliamentary seats or fewer.
That report is a part of what has made this 70-year-old professor, along with his formidable mind, unruly tufts of white hair and infectious enthusiasm, an unlikely media star. However his beloved standing in Britain goes deeper. He’s frank and scrupulously nonpartisan, making him a rarity in an age of polarization — a trusted supply of knowledge throughout the political spectrum.
“I attempt to converse in human. I’m attempting to talk in ways in which most of the people will perceive,” he informed The New York Instances over a frugal tuna sandwich lunch within the atrium beneath the BBC’s Westminster studios.
“Generally I kick one celebration and different occasions I kick the opposite,” he mentioned. “And normally I kick each of them.”
‘You Don’t Have Time to Suppose About Going to Sleep’
In February, as broadcasters awaited the outcomes of particular elections in two parliamentary districts, Professor Curtice was in entrance of the TV lights at 10 p.m. as a BBC Information producer adjusted his earpiece.
His evaluation was characteristically fluent, as had been the 20 or so different interviews he accomplished by means of an evening of TV appearances that stretched into breakfast time the next day.
Fueled by espresso and a bowl of porridge consumed round 6 a.m. within the BBC cafeteria, he then strode off to the broadcaster’s radio studios, persevering with a media blitz that ended at 4 p.m. It was an exhausting, exhilarating stint of 18 hours.
“You don’t have time to consider going to sleep — it’s adrenaline, it’s mental pleasure, it’s an mental problem,” he mentioned.
He comes ready, nonetheless, his laptop computer brimming with knowledge from earlier elections, information which will or is probably not damaged, and his pondering for the way he can summarize the most probably eventualities.
Professor Curtice’s first political reminiscence is of the election of Harold Wilson as chief of the opposition Labour Occasion in 1963. He was 9 years outdated. A yr later, he was allowed to remain up late on normal election night time, when Mr. Wilson received a small majority, bringing Labour to energy for the primary time in 13 years.
“Don’t ask me why, I simply discovered it attention-grabbing,” he mentioned.
He was raised in Cornwall, on the rugged shoreline of southwest England. His father labored in development, his mom a part-time market researcher and the household was affluent sufficient to personal a indifferent home with a big backyard (however no central heating).
At Oxford College, the place he studied politics, philosophy and economics, Professor Curtice was a up to date of Tony Blair, who went on to grow to be prime minister, however their paths didn’t cross. Whereas Mr. Blair performed in a rock band referred to as Ugly Rumours, a younger Professor Curtice was a choral scholar who spent two hours a day at evensong.
As a postgraduate, he was urged to grow to be “statistically literate” by his mentor, David Butler, a towering determine in British political science who ran the nation’s first exit ballot in 1970.
His first TV election night time look was in 1979, the night time Margaret Thatcher got here to energy. Armed with a calculator he had programmed himself, he supplied Professor Butler with statistical backup in case the BBC’s mainframe laptop went down.
It was exit polls, nonetheless, that actually made Prof. Curtice’s identify. His first involvement was in 1992, which he later informed The Guardian was “not a cheerful expertise” as a result of the ballot predicted a hung Parliament as an alternative of the modest majority of 21 that John Main received for the Conservatives.
Since 2001, a brand new mannequin he created with David Firth, one other tutorial, has improved the accuracy of the forecasts, generally to the discomfort of politicians. In 2015, Paddy Ashdown, the previous Liberal Democrat chief, promised to eat his hat if the exit ballot prediction that his celebration would retain solely 10 of its practically 60 seats proved appropriate. Actually it received fewer. On a TV present the next night time, Mr. Ashdown was handed a hat-shaped chocolate cake.
Lately, the exit ballot is collectively commissioned by three nationwide broadcasters — the BBC, ITV and Sky Information. On July 4, tens of 1000’s of voters across the nation might be handed a mock poll paper on their method out of polling stations and requested to mark in non-public how they voted.
In 2017, the ballot accurately predicted that, as an alternative of accelerating her majority in Parliament, as she and lots of analysts anticipated, Theresa Could had misplaced it. In 2019, the projected measurement of Boris Johnson’s majority was off by simply three seats.
Professor Curtice shouldn’t be complacent, nonetheless, and notes that upsets are all the time potential — as in 2015, when the exit ballot projected a hung Parliament, however David Cameron scraped a skinny majority. “Folks suppose there may be some magic, however we’re solely pretty much as good as the information,” Professor Curtice mentioned.
‘Very, Very Extremely Unbelievable’
Exit polls are trickiest when elections are shut. This time, the Conservative Occasion, which has held energy for 14 years, has lagged the opposition Labour Occasion in opinion polls by about 20 factors for 18 months. Whereas such leads normally slim within the remaining weeks of a marketing campaign, the Conservatives would wish to make fashionable electoral historical past to win.
Professor Curtice places their probabilities of forming the subsequent authorities at lower than 5 % — “the purpose at which statisticians go: it’s very, very extremely unbelievable.” He provides that that is partly as a result of, even when the Conservatives beat expectations and the result is a hung Parliament, they lack allies who would hold them in energy as a minority authorities.
Honored with a knighthood by Queen Elizabeth II in 2017, Professor Curtice is now well-known sufficient that strangers greet him on the street. His identify developments on social media on election nights, and there’s a tribute account on X devoted to monitoring his media appearances referred to as, “Is Sir John Curtice On TV?” (Proper now, the reply is usually “Sure.”)
May this be his final normal election TV look? That, he mentioned, is one thing he’ll contemplate after the vote. “If the subsequent election is in 5 years, I might be 75, and who is aware of?”
However for now, the nation wants him. “There are loads of consultants who know loads however can’t translate that in a method that’s clear to the viewers,” mentioned BBC Information anchor Nicky Schiller after interviewing Professor Curtice on the night time of the February particular elections. And, he added, “He’s a pleasure to work with.”
