The outcomes of Kazakhstan’s snap presidential election—the place the tally has present chief Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with 81% of votes — surprises nobody. What disappoints these in Washington, London, Brussels, and most significantly in Kazakhstan, is that they hoped for extra.
The Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe’s Workplace of Democratic Initiatives and Human Rights (OSCE ODIHR) concluded that the election failed to satisfy worldwide requirements.
The OSCE mission acknowledged that “the 20 November early presidential election came about in a political surroundings missing competitiveness, and whereas effectively ready, the election underlined the necessity for additional reforms to convey associated laws and its implementation in keeping with OSCE commitments to make sure real pluralism.”
Not one of the 5 candidates who ran in opposition to Tokayev had any credibility within the political or public spheres. The most well-liked of the hand-picked, no-name candidates, was Zhiguli Dayrabayev. Fairly than for his political prowess, his marketing campaign was finest remembered by the video of him dramatically chopping an animal bone along with his hand on the dinner desk.
The voters’ recognition that the election provided no actual various to Tokayev is clear because the “not one of the above” possibility completed second on the poll.
The identical overseas ministry that a couple of years in the past lobbied for Kazakhstan to function the OSCE chairman-in-office—a profitable effort that I testified on behalf of—now claims that the Vienna-based organisation “suffers from a scarcity of objectivity and calls into query the effectiveness of ODIHR as an essential establishment of the organisation that has to this point loved the assist of” Kazakhstan.
Tokayev obtained congratulations on his election victory from presidents Xi, Putin, Erdogan, and Lukashenko.
Nevertheless, the cellphone within the Akorda, Kazakhstan’s presidential palace, didn’t ring with congratulatory calls from Berlin, Paris, London, or Washington.
Each the European Union and the US State Division’s statements on the election repeated the issues voiced by the OSCE ODIHR delegation, with Brussels calling on the federal government of Kazakhstan to “improve political pluralism and residents’ participation in political life,” and Washington highlighting the “absence of significant political competitors and continued limits on the freedoms of expression and peaceable meeting” within the election.
The State Division reiterated the US’ “unwavering assist for Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” This reassertion is essential, given issues of an aggressive Moscow and the truth that the election did nothing to reinforce the legitimacy of Tokayev’s presidency.
Three Putin visits in three weeks
Tokayev, who skipped the COP27 convention in Egypt, is scheduled to satisfy with Putin thrice over the following three weeks. Throughout the Chinese language president’s first overseas journey following Beijing’s Covid lockdown, Tokayev welcomed Xi with the Order of the Golden Eagle, Kazakhstan’s highest honour.
Tokayev described the heat of the connection and thanked Xi for his “mutual belief and cooperation.” This demonstrates Tokayev’s prioritisation of a seat on the desk with fellow authoritarians over one with the West.
Policymakers in Brussels, London, and Washington stay involved concerning the lack of democratic progress; unmet requires a world investigation into the extreme violence earlier this 12 months, remembered as Bloody January in Kazakhstan; and the continuing arbitrary detention of former prime minister Karim Massimov.
These calculations proceed to affect whether or not and the way these policymakers selected to cope with President Tokayev. On his 17 November go to to Astana, Josep Borrell, the EU’s excessive consultant for overseas affairs and safety coverage, expressed the significance of an unbiased investigation into the occasions in January, and the arbitrary detention of Karim Massimov and others.
Kazakh officers travelled to Western capitals to guarantee them of Astana’s need to take important steps ahead. Whereas one didn’t count on an ideal election, it is necessary for the federal government of Kazakhstan to remain forward of the inhabitants’s demand for democratic progress.
The repression of civic protest in January was purported to be met by a extra open extra democratic structure and presidential election. But, neither has been supplied for the folks of Kazakhstan.
As Berlin realized from the frustration of Ostpolitik with Moscow and Washington found from the failure of a coverage of engagement with Beijing, one must see actions, somewhat than to easily hope that assurances will likely be honoured later.
Following the indiscriminate use of violence in January, these elections, known as early by the president of Kazakhstan, represented a possibility missed for Astana to exhibit {that a} web page has actually been turned.
Regrettably, a alternative was made on 20 November: a alternative by president Tokayev. It was for an authoritative future to his presidency, in league along with his neighbours Xi and Putin, somewhat than with democracy and a way forward for nearer relations with Europe and the West.