In Uganda, historical past is as soon as once more repeating itself – a strongman is stubbornly and violently clinging to energy within the face of rising calls for for a peaceable transition, and shamelessly warning the nation that his exit would convey nothing however chaos and bloodshed.
Certainly, Uganda’s January 14 presidential election, which noticed incumbent Yoweri Kaguta Museveni re-elected, was an election held at gunpoint within the cowl of darkness.
Days earlier than the polls, Museveni not solely ordered a full shutdown of the nation’s web but additionally demonstrated the navy may of his dictatorial regime by filling Kampala’s streets with tanks and skies with helicopters. His message to the voters was clear: “it’s both me, or warfare”.
The rebel-turned-politician, who has been in energy since 1986, was much more decided to not permit Ugandans to vote freely on this election, as for the primary time in a long time his primary challenger was not his previous comrade and former private physician, Kizza Besigye.
This 12 months, Museveni was working in opposition to a dynamic, a lot youthful opponent named Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu who has the help of tens of millions of younger Ugandans determined for change. Identified by his stage identify Bobi Wine, the previous singer entered Uganda’s political scene in 2017 and has since turn into essentially the most important risk to Museveni fulfilling his obvious want to stay president for the remainder of his life.
So, because the nation equipped for the 2021 elections, Museveni needed to provide you with new methods to discourage tens of millions of younger Ugandans armed with their cell phones from tallying outcomes or exposing in real-time the anticipated repeat of widespread electoral malpractices which have marred earlier elections.
Over the past election, he had ordered a social media shutdown. This time, he went all in and ordered a complete web blackout to permit his state equipment to work in full darkness, with no details about the election reaching Ugandan residents.
Museveni’s makes an attempt to safe a victory at any value began lengthy earlier than the polls truly opened. Throughout the complete marketing campaign interval, he used state powers in his service to attempt to intimidate Bobi Wine, different main opposition figures like Discussion board for Democratic Change’s Patrick Oboi Amuriat, and their supporters into submission. His regime additionally used restrictions put in place to stem the unfold of COVID-19 to focus on opposition rallies and forestall his rivals from connecting with voters throughout the nation.
Bobi Wine has been arrested and detained beneath trumped-up fees 3 times within the months main as much as the election. His second arrest in mid-November, for allegedly breaking COVID-19 gathering restrictions, led to widespread protests throughout the nation. As Bobi Wine’s supporters took to the streets in city centres to demand free and honest elections, safety forces responded with bullets and tear gasoline. In accordance with Museveni himself, a minimum of 54 individuals misplaced their lives in these state-sponsored episodes of violence.
As nationwide newspapers chronicled tales of those that misplaced their lives, it turned clear that the navy had indiscriminately fired bullets on civilian crowds. The youngest sufferer of the violence was a 15-year-old boy named Amos Segawa.
Issues didn’t get any higher on election day. Safety forces arrested greater than 30 Ugandan election observers, and because of this, the nation didn’t have the chance to obtain neutral, dependable info on the vote rely. Coupled with an extreme navy presence on the streets, polling stations, and information centres, most Ugandans misplaced any remaining hope they’d for a free and honest election.
As authorities in Kampala began to announce preliminary outcomes with out providing any rationalization as to how they gathered them, Bobi Wine declared the electoral course of a rigged “sham” and introduced his intention to contest the outcomes legally. This led to Museveni’s safety forces raiding his compound, arresting his safety guards, and successfully imprisoning him in his personal home alongside his spouse and younger youngster. Tons of of Bobi Wine supporters have additionally been illegally detained throughout the nation.
In the long run, ignoring rising issues concerning the legitimacy of the election, the Electoral Fee of Uganda introduced in a televised information convention that Museveni had received the race with 58.64 p.c of the vote.
With Bobi Wine nonetheless besieged in his residence and tanks nonetheless rolling in Kampala’s streets, the fee’s announcement did not persuade many Ugandans of the legitimacy of Museveni’s victory.
Nonetheless, the incumbent welcomed the leads to a televised tackle to the nation and defiantly claimed that the 2021 presidential polls could ultimately grow to be Uganda’s “most cheating-free election” since independence.
Museveni has an extended historical past of strong-arming the Ugandan individuals, the opposition, and the worldwide neighborhood into trying previous allegations of election fraud and rigging. In 2016, for instance, he succeeded in convincing the nation of his electoral victory’s legitimacy by besieging his then-rival Besigye’s home for greater than 40 days.
Nonetheless, the techniques that saved him in energy for many years could also be beginning to lose their effectivity.
Positive, he “received” the election. Positive, Bobi Wine’s supporters are at present considerably subdued, as they haven’t any manner of speaking with the imprisoned opposition chief save for infrequent movies and images from his home posted on-line for the reason that partial restoration of the web on January 18. However the president shouldn’t confuse this helpless silence with acceptance.
Museveni could have secured one other time period as president in an election designed to maintain him in energy, however his get together nonetheless suffered important loses in the exact same polls. About 30 MPs, together with many cupboard ministers and the vice chairman, misplaced their seats, largely to candidates from Bobi Wine’s Nationwide Unity Platform (NUP). Furthermore, Bobi Wine’s get together trounced the ruling Nationwide Resistance Motion (NRM) within the Buganda area, together with within the Luwero triangle the place Museveni began his guerrilla warfare that propelled him to energy 35 years in the past.
Regardless of all of the violence and intimidation, younger Ugandans nonetheless went to the polls wherever they might and demonstrated that they don’t seem to be prepared to surrender on their struggle to unseat the previous guard to pave the best way for a greater future.
Museveni’s navy prowess secured him a sixth time period as president, however didn’t show enough to make the Ugandan individuals see him the best way they did three a long time in the past: somebody who can inject new hope into a rustic in determined want of change.
Museveni and his authorities are clearly conscious that regardless of their so-called electoral victory, they not have the help of a transparent majority of the Ugandan individuals. They usually know this lack of authentic public help may simply flip the worldwide neighborhood in opposition to them.
Because of this they accused Washington of attempting to “subvert” the election when the US ambassador to Uganda tried to go to Bobi Wine at his residence.
The Museveni regime is now cornered, irritated and clearly struggling to discern who’s a pal and who’s a foe. The regime can proceed to co-opt all constructions at residence in Museveni’s favour to make sure he’s by no means subjected to a free and honest election, nonetheless, it can’t keep in energy if the world turns its again to the longtime Ugandan chief.
My individuals have a saying that goes “even the very best dancer on the stage should retire someday”. Museveni clearly sees himself as the very best dancer, however he’s unwilling to hearken to different individuals’s opinions and settle for that the time has come for him to retire.
The truth that he doesn’t have sufficient confidence in himself to face in opposition to younger opponents in free and honest elections alone is proof that his departure is lengthy overdue.
Right now, as they actually look down the barrel of a gun, younger Ugandans are extra decided than ever to construct a brand new Uganda. Those that have lengthy been reluctant to again the opposition in worry of what may occur in Museveni’s absence are actually not within the majority, because the altering demographics of the nation has tilted the stability in favour of the youth. The regime’s ever extra blatant human rights abuses, militarism and lies usually are not going to assist Museveni for much longer.
Uganda is at a tipping level – and anybody who doesn’t need to see the nation engulfed in yet one more violent energy battle ought to begin supporting non-violent efforts to demilitarise Ugandan politics, and pressuring Museveni to ship the peaceable transition of energy the nation has been ready for since its declaration of independence in 1962.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.