Istanbul, Turkey – “We could come instantly one evening.”
It’s a sentence that has served as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rallying cry for a number of years, notably since he launched three army campaigns in northern Syria within the aftermath of a failed coup try in 2016.
Again in June, Erdogan stated {that a} new Turkish army operation was being deliberate, which might goal areas of the Syrian-Turkish border, comparable to Kobane (Ayn al-Arab), Tal Rifaat and Manbij, managed by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey regards as an offshoot of the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration (PKK).
Nonetheless, regardless of the operation seeming imminent on the time, it has not occurred, with Russia, Iran and the West pushing again in opposition to Turkey’s plans.
Sunday’s lethal bomb assault in Istanbul has now prompted hypothesis about whether or not Erdogan will carry by on his warning.
Turkish authorities have stated that the preliminary findings of the investigation into the assault that killed six civilians in Istiklal Avenue, one in all Istanbul’s busiest and most touristic areas, level to the PKK and the Folks’s Safety Models (YPG), whose forces predominantly make up the SDF. The PKK is a delegated “terrorist” group in Turkey, the US and the European Union, however the SDF is backed by the US, amongst others, as a part of the combat in opposition to ISIL (ISIS).
The suspected bomber’s reported confessions have boosted the argument of these in Turkey who’ve been pushing for a army operation.
A Syrian Arab from Deir Az Zor, she has reportedly stated that she was skilled by the YPG within the Syrian city of Manbij, one other goal of any future Turkish army operation, for 2 months earlier than finishing up the deadly assault.
However the PKK has denied the assault, claiming that it will not goal civilians, regardless of historic proof on the contrary.
As an alternative, supporters of the PKK consider that Ankara will use the bombing to justify its long-awaited army marketing campaign in Kobane.
Pushback
Amid rising nationalist and anti-Syrian refugee sentiments earlier than Turkey’s June 2023 elections, Turkey’s inside minister Suleyman Soylu declared that the Istanbul assault can be avenged, elevating the prospect of a army incursion in Syria, whereas talking to the press after the assault.
Turkish Intelligence retired Colonel Coskun Basbug stated that Sunday’s assault didn’t at present portend a return to the 2015-2017 interval, when Turkey suffered repeated assaults by PKK-affiliated teams and ISIL.
As as to whether a brand new army operation is on the playing cards, Basbug thought the time may not be proper.
“Turkey has the required capability and sources to launch this operation in northern Syria,” Basbug advised Al Jazeera.
Nonetheless, there are different gamers on the sphere, together with the US, Russia, Iran, and the Syrian authorities.
“Ankara has at all times wished for all events to succeed in an settlement [on a military operation in northern Syria], however nobody provides you with that, particularly not the US,” Basbug stated.
The US, a NATO ally of Turkey, has discovered itself with a troublesome balancing act, trying to restrain Ankara from attacking the SDF, whereas additionally understanding Turkey’s safety considerations.
Retired US Colonel Richard Outzen stated it will be very troublesome for any nation, together with the US, to argue in opposition to Turkey’s proper to self-defence, however that the US and EU’s reactions are based mostly on their very own nationwide pursuits.
“I perceive why Turkey doesn’t need the YPG or PKK by its borders,” Outzen stated. “However the US place is that there shouldn’t be any operation that will disrupt US counter-terror and stabilisation efforts in Syria.”
Outzen referred to the coordination between the US and Turkey throughout Turkey’s 2019 Operation Peace Spring, which focused Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn in northern Syria.
Based on Outzen, Turkey was cautious to keep away from any hazard to US troops based mostly in northern Syria throughout that operation.
“There are nonetheless US troops in northern Syria, and I need to assume Turkey pays equal consideration,” Outzen added.
The US will not be the one worldwide energy Turkey has to fret about.
Russia has been supporting the Syrian authorities, and has fought in opposition to Turkey’s allies within the Syrian opposition. Moscow additionally has maintained a robust relationship with the SDF.
Based on Halil Ibrahim Albayrak, a Turkish intelligence and safety knowledgeable, Russia and the US are successfully Turkey’s de facto neighbours on its southern border with Syria.
That poses an issue to Turkey, which feels that each Moscow and Washington haven’t adhered to guarantees that Ankara’s safety considerations can be thought-about.
“Turkey’s definition of a menace, particularly in Syria and Iraq, has at all times been clear, and it has defined this quite a few instances to each the US and Russia,” Albayrak advised Al Jazeera. “No different nation within the worldwide system has been as weak to terrorism as Turkey. We have now compelling causes to conduct a army operation. No EU nation has an 800-kilometere-long [500-mile-long] border that breeds terrorism.”
In Turkey’s eyes, army operations in opposition to the PKK and its affiliated teams have already reaped rewards, not simply in Syria, but in addition in Iraq.
Based on each Basbug and Albayrak, the PKK’s presence in Iraq has practically vanished because of these operations within the north of the nation.
Nonetheless, Basbug believed that Turkey won’t launch a marketing campaign in Syria till its persevering with marketing campaign in Iraq is accomplished.
As an alternative, he anticipated restricted assaults in opposition to the YPG in Syria to proceed, till a full-scale operation is required.
“We have now nearly come to the top of the operation in Iraq,” stated Basbug. “When it’s full, we’ll have disrupted the hyperlink between the PKK in Iraq and the YPG in Syria. [Therefore] a full-scale operation, which we’re at present able to, could not even be mandatory.”