Whereas inflation was clearly on the high of voters’ minds on this yr’s midterm elections, the Supreme Courtroom choice overturning Roe v. Wade performed a big function in motivating key voting blocs that seemingly contributed to the Democratic occasion’s stronger-than-expected efficiency, a new evaluation of KFF’s supplemental questions on the Related Press VoteCast survey of midterm voters.
About 4 in ten (38%) voters total mentioned that the Supreme Courtroom choice ending the constitutional proper to an abortion had a significant influence on their choice about whether or not to vote on this yr’s election. The share citing the choice as a significant motivator was highest amongst Black ladies below age 50 (61%), Hispanic ladies below age 50 (58%), those that voted for Democratic Congressional candidates (56%), first-time voters (54%), voters below age 30 (53%), and those that mentioned they have been offended in regards to the Supreme Courtroom’s abortion choice (55%).
Whereas the election outcomes replicate voters’ views about particular person candidates and different components, by way of points, the evaluation counsel that abortion labored as a counterweight to voters’ broader considerations about inflation, which favored Republican candidates.
Nationally, almost half (47%) of all voters say the Courtroom’s choice had a significant influence on which candidates they supported on this election, together with nearly two-thirds (64%) of those that voted for Democratic Home candidates.
The evaluation exhibits comparable patterns taking part in out in states with aggressive Senate races and the place voters confronted abortion-related poll initiatives.
As well as, the evaluation means that abortion contributed to some Republicans voting for Democratic Senate candidates in key states. Whereas comparatively few Republicans recognized the abortion choice as the one most essential issue of their vote (about one in ten Republican voters), a few fifth of people who did in each Pennsylvania (21%) and Arizona (19%) voted for the Democratic Senate candidate. Although small as a share of complete voters, these sorts of crossover votes might have mattered in these shut races.
In these two states, in addition to Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin, which had aggressive Senate and gubernatorial races, no less than 4 in ten voters total mentioned the choice had a significant influence on who they voted for.
As well as, in every of the 4 states with abortion-related poll initiatives (California, Michigan, Kentucky and Vermont), about 4 in ten voters mentioned the Supreme Courtroom’s abortion choice performed a significant function of their choice to prove to vote.
Amongst ladies voters below age 50, no less than half say the choice performed a significant function of their choice to vote within the three states that handed poll measures to amend the state’s structure to ascertain an specific proper to abortion (55% in CA, 55% in MI, and 51% in VT). In Kentucky, the place voters rejected an modification declaring there was no proper to an abortion, almost half (45%) of girls voters below age 50 say the choice performed a significant function in motivating them to vote.
The evaluation attracts on supplemental inquiries to the AP VoteCast survey that KFF added to supply a deeper have a look at the function of abortion in motivating each turnout and vote alternative. The AP VoteCast is a nationwide survey and 48 state surveys of 2022 midterm voters performed by NORC on the College of Chicago for the AP and FoxNews starting on Oct. 31 and concluding as polls shut on Nov. 8, 2022, in English and Spanish.