For the reason that early summer time, the cellphones of Armenian and Azerbaijani navy combatants have supplied partial however dramatic accounts of a brand new and evolving confrontation between the 2 international locations.
Again in Might, troopers filmed themselves overrunning enemy outposts shouting in damaged Russian at their opponents to depart, orchestrated with kicks to backsides, punches or volleys from assault rifles fired into the air.
In picturesque alpine meadows, platoons of Armenian and Azeri troops confronted off, typically only a few metres aside. It was a tinderbox that burst into flames on the afternoon of November 16.
Whereas there isn’t any independently verifiable data, navy sources and native media reported a full-scale battle for a number of hours alongside a stretch of border between Azerbaijan and Armenia on or close to Mount Ishkhanasar.
Either side have reported casualties; Armenia mentioned at the very least six troopers had been killed, whereas Azerbaijan introduced the deaths of at the very least seven troops.
Cellular footage reveals an Azerbaijani artillery unit bombarding Armenian positions. Armenia’s Ministry of Defence launched a video of Azerbaijani armoured automobiles being struck by guided weapons.
Harrowing video shot at night time in a blizzard seems to indicate Azerbaijani troopers beating uniformed Armenian regulars on the bottom.
That is Armenia and Azerbaijan’s new battle: for management of disputed borders outlined by Soviet cartographers.
Nagorno-Karabakh battle
Till the final 12 months’s conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh area, these borders had been buffered by territories inside Azerbaijan below de facto Armenian management for the reason that Nineteen Nineties.
However with Azerbaijan’s navy victory and the recapturing of just about all of its misplaced territories, the border areas between Armenia’s Syunik and Gegharkunik provinces, and Azerbaijan’s newly established East Zangezur area have change into militarised entrance strains.
Olesya Vartanyan, a senior analyst with the Brussels-headquartered Worldwide Disaster Group, mentioned that within the mountainous terrain, each armies are eager to determine positions on one of the best obtainable floor.
“The present day by day drawback is that troops of reverse sides shouldn’t have communication with one another. The identical is between Azerbaijani and Armenian Joint Staffs. When one facet observes a number of huge vans with troopers, he straight away suspects attainable preparations for an assault. There is no such thing as a approach to verify earlier than beginning an assault.”
Syunik Province separates Azerbaijan from its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, in some locations by lower than 40km (25 miles).
Crucially, roads that join Armenian cities and villages in Syunik run via Azerbaijani territory, and right here Azerbaijani forces have established checkpoints.
Armenia’s Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan has accused Azerbaijan of a deliberate coverage of isolation, describing the practically impassible different routes villagers have been compelled to take. College youngsters and lecturers have been unable to get to high school.
“The blockade of the Goris-Kapan highway or the so-called Azerbaijani border and customs checkpoints will trigger violations of the rights of the civilian inhabitants and extreme humanitarian points, together with the isolation of quite a few civilian communities,” Tatoyan instructed Armenian media.
Whereas Azerbaijan maintains that Armenia provoked the most recent combating, geolocation of a number of the footage recorded since Tuesday strongly signifies incursions by Azerbaijani armed forces inside Armenia correct.
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed on Tuesday that since Might, 41 sq. kilometres (15 sq. miles) of sovereign Armenian territory have been seized by Azerbaijan within the border areas.
Azerbaijan could have a technique: to strain Armenia to conclude negotiations following final 12 months’s ceasefire settlement over Nagorno-Karabakh.
These phrases included a dedication by Armenia to permit “unobstructed entry” between the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijan.
Fuad Shahbaz, a navy analyst from Baku, says the most recent combating is a results of these negotiations failing to attain their goals, together with the demarcation of the borders.
“Yerevan is just not prepared for concessions on a transit route and I assume Baku misplaced persistence. It hoped to resolve the problem earlier than the winter throughout a deliberate November assembly in Moscow which was postponed.”
Whereas Shahbaz believes the opening of a path to Nakhchivan would profit each Azerbaijan and Armenia by linking up with Turkey, for a lot of Armenians it poses a direct menace to Armenian statehood.
“The Azerbaijan strategic aim is to determine at the very least de facto management over Syunik province,” says Benyamin Poghosyan, a Yerevan-based political scientist. “President Aliyev of Azerbaijan has acknowledged many instances publicly that Syunik province artificially separates the Turkic world spanning from Istanbul to Kazakhstan.”
Russian presence
Russia’s navy presence in Armenia is meant to ensure Armenian safety, and Russian boots on the bottom in Karabakh are serving to to keep up a fragile peace, albeit with occasional outbreaks of localised violence.
To date, Armenia has not formally requested Russian navy intervention as a part of its Collective Safety Treaty with Moscow. However Moscow can exert affect in a approach that no different mediator can.
“It’s the solely regional energy with an precise navy presence on the bottom and a severe political say with leaders in each capitals. So it’s no shock that Moscow is succeeding. Particularly the place the OSCE Minsk Group has been struggling to resume its capabilities,” mentioned Vartanyan.
The so-called Minsk Group is co-chaired by Russia, France and america and was established in 1994 after the primary Karabakh conflict to work for a everlasting peace between Armenian and Azerbaijan.
“Solely just lately the co-chairs discovered a approach to suggest an agenda and a format that may fulfill either side. However they nonetheless have an extended approach to go earlier than conversations that may result in actual change.”
An intervention by Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu led to a cessation within the combating on November 16.
In the intervening time, the weapons are silent.