Ashok Leyland Share value: JM Monetary carried out checks with Ashok Leyland sellers to gauge the market response of the just lately launched Bada Dost LCV. JM Monetary rolled ahead to Mar’22 and elevated the goal value to Rs 120 (from Rs 100 earlier) primarily based on 18x PE for standalone and Rs 7 contribution from Hinduja Leyland Finance (1x FY23 BV and 30% holding firm low cost). The brand new 3ton+ LCV has obtained constructive buyer response pushed by advantages comparable to higher mileage, superior pick-up and decrease service price vs. friends. The rise in addressable market and product acceptability ought to assist the corporate to realize market share within the LCV section. Moreover, macroeconomic indicators comparable to e-way invoice technology, IIP progress and manufacturing PMI are exhibiting wholesome indicators of restoration previously three months.
Ashok Leyland MHCV volumes are recovering in tandem with the financial restoration, whereas LCV volumes are already recording YoY progress.
JM Monetary anticipate Ashok Leyland to learn from:
a) elevated addressable market with introduction of the Phoenix platform
b) modular platform for MHCVs
c) begin of 3-5 years of MHCV up-cycle
d) elevated focus in export market
Ashok Leyland estimates income/quantity/EBITDA CAGR (over FY20-23E) of 15%/10%/39%, pushed by a gross sales up-cycle and margin enlargement. Delay in quantity restoration, enhance in aggressive depth are the important thing draw back dangers, whereas implementation of scrappage coverage is an upside threat.
Constructive response for the newly launched Bada Dost LCV:
The launch of the Phoenix platform is anticipated to extend the addressable market in LCV for Ashok Leyland from 35% to 65% within the medium time period. IIP has began recording YoY progress after witnessing de-growth for six months between Mar-Aug ’20.
Manufacturing PMI is at multi-year excessive indicating enlargement in manufacturing exercise. JM Monetary expects sturdy progress in capital formation in FY22E pushed by the federal government’s elevated deal with infrastructure spend. Ashok Leyland is anticipated to be a key beneficiary as 20% MHCV volumes are of tippers which has direct correlation with infra spends. Strong progress in sectors comparable to agriculture, cars, mining, FMCG are supporting freight demand.
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MHCV quantity for Ashok Leyland is recording sequential progress in-line with the advance in financial indicators. Modular platform in MHCV is additional anticipated to assist quantity. Elevated penetration and gradual restoration of the worldwide markets augurs for exports. Implementation of scrappage coverage can additional assist quantity progress.
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