India’s International Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar together with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov after conferences in Moscow, Russia on November 8, 2022.
Credit score: Twitter/DrSJaishankar
Forward of Indian International Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s go to to Moscow this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin was engaged in a major however welcome flip-flop in Ukraine.
Late final month, Putin accused Ukraine of attacking Russia’s naval fleet and suspended a deal that allowed Ukrainian grain to transit by means of the Black Sea. However 4 days later, Putin backtracked on that risk and stated that the deal was again on.
Putin’s excuse was that he had acquired assurances from Ukraine that it received’t use the grain hall to assault Russian forces. However in a provocative and insightful essay for the Washington Put up, navy historian Max Boot argued that the U-turn might need been provoked by diplomacy from unlikely quarters. “It seems to be as if Putin buckled to stress from Turkey and, extra broadly, from growing nations that depend on Ukrainian grain to feed their folks,” he wrote. “Putin didn’t wish to threat the opprobrium that he would face from sinking cargo ships carrying grain to feed a few of the world’s poorest folks.”
Boot identified that Russia’s burgeoning ties with nations like India, China and Turkey may, in that sense, rein in Putin’s worst impulses – whether or not ravenous tens of millions to demise or setting off nuclear weapons. “These nations have a whole lot of leverage with Russia,” he wrote.
It’s not but clear what function India has performed to date in reining Russia in. On the Shanghai Cooperation Group this September, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to castigate Putin when he instructed him that “at the moment’s period shouldn’t be an period of battle.” In Moscow this week, Jaishankar echoed that assertion and in addition introduced up the difficulty of grain and fertilizer shipments from Ukraine. “The World South, particularly, is feeling this ache very acutely,” Jaishankar stated of the battle’s impression.
It’s nicely potential that stronger phrases have been used privately. However because the battle continues to devolve and Russian hardliners rattle the saber at dwelling, India will maybe must deliberate on the place it ought to draw the road on Russia’s aggression.
Thus far, India has remained steadfastly impartial and stoic by means of copious stories of Russian battle crimes in Ukraine, together with the bloodbath in Bucha earlier this yr. However with every passing month, leverage appears to stream each methods.
Earlier than the invasion, Russia was already a key navy accomplice to New Delhi. Now, additionally it is an vital financial accomplice with a major commerce imbalance in its favor. Bilateral commerce is reported to have gone up by a whopping 310 p.c for the reason that invasion – the most important enhance amongst any of Russia’s main commerce companions. But, India’s exports to Russia have fallen by 19 p.c whereas imports have soared 430 p.c. Extra importantly, Russia now accounts for a document 23 p.c of India’s oil imports, up from a share of simply 2 p.c earlier than the invasion.
This yr, because the West tightened monetary sanctions on Moscow, Russia turned the primary nation to provoke rupee-based commerce with India by means of a particular Vostro account. It additionally now accounts for India’s highest commerce deficit – over $20 billion, second solely to China.
For New Delhi, these financial components usually are not simple to low cost, it doesn’t matter what Putin does in Ukraine. Final month, the Worldwide Financial Fund downgraded India’s anticipated financial progress for this yr and the subsequent, citing “weakening of exterior demand and a tightening of financial and monetary circumstances.” In the meantime, giant elements of the Indian economic system additionally present indicators of weak home demand and confidence within the aftermath of the pandemic.
These dynamics had been seen in Moscow throughout Jaishankar’s go to this week. On his journey, the Indian international minister took with him a large contingent, comprising officers accountable for every part from agriculture, petroleum and ports, to chemical compounds, fertilizers and finance.
When requested about India’s continued import of oil from Russia, Jaishankar candidly conceded that New Delhi has little wiggle room or leverage on the matter. “[As] the world’s third largest shopper of oil and gasoline – a shopper the place the degrees of revenue usually are not very excessive – it’s our basic obligation to make sure that the Indian shopper has the absolute best entry on essentially the most advantageous phrases to worldwide markets,” he stated.
For months, analysts throughout the West have been hoping that India would mediate purposefully in Ukraine or a minimum of use its relationship with Putin to rein him in. However because the invasion has gone on, it’s changing into more and more unclear how New Delhi can ever do this.