COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — From satellite tv for pc jamming over Jap Europe to Russia’s testing of an anti-satellite weapon, analysts monitoring counterspace threats say the final yr has introduced affirmation of a number of troubling predictions – and 2022 will possible proceed these developments.
Safe World Basis and the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research each launched studies Monday outlining developments in counterspace exercise over the past yr and documenting the event and use of house weapons. Lately, the 2 Washington, DC, assume tanks have warned of accelerating counterspace actions and predicted heightened responses from the U.S. and different spacefaring nations.
But when 2021 confirmed the development, the approaching yr may very well be “a pivotal turning level in house safety,” CSIS writes in its report, because of Russia’s use of counterspace capabilities like GPS jamming and cyber assaults in its conflict on Ukraine.
“If the battle additional extends into house with extra aggressive assaults towards house methods, resembling laser dazzling of images satellites or cyberattacks towards satellite tv for pc floor stations, it may change into the primary main battle by which counterspace weapons play a big function,” the report states.
Talking with reporters Friday, Safe World Basis’s Brian Weeden pointed to the late February cyber assault on communications supplier Viasat and its KA-SAT system — which gives high-speed web for patrons in Jap Europe and the Mediterranean — for instance of the uptick in disruption within the area. The assault focused the system’s floor terminals relatively than the satellite tv for pc itself, which Weeden stated is widespread.
Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Safety Mission at CSIS, stated Friday it’s tough to quantify how a lot jamming has occurred because the lead-up to the invasion. He and Weeden famous that the jamming that has been publicly reported up to now has been from ground-based relatively than space-based methods.
Trying extra broadly throughout 2021 counterspace developments, the CSIS report highlights the rising use of jamming and spoofing, which tracks with a 2020 prediction that such incidents would improve together with the sophistication of counterspace weapons. In keeping with CSIS, 2021 noticed a rise in each the variety of incidents and their complexity.
CSIS has additionally beforehand recognized Russia because the “most definitely nation” to conduct counterspace testing. Russia fulfilled that prediction final November, testing a direct-ascent ASAT that’s estimated to have created a minimum of 1,500 items of particles.
“These and different recognized developments sign that counterspace weapons are not rising applied sciences — many are absolutely developed, examined and operational methods,” the report states, noting that whereas a small variety of nations have extra superior counterspace weapons, extra international locations have entry to cyber and digital warfare capabilities and are growing offensive and defensive counterspace weapons to guard towards assaults and guarantee they’ll reply ought to their on-orbit belongings be focused.
The Safe World Basis report made related observations, explaining that whereas there was “important analysis and improvement of a broad vary of harmful and non-destructive capabilities in a number of international locations,” energetic navy operations have solely featured non-destructive methods.
Kaitlyn Johnson, deputy director of the Aerospace Safety Mission at CSIS, stated Friday that no matter a nation’s intent — be it defensive or offensive — all of those capabilities contribute to the elevated weaponization of house.
“When you can phrase the way in which that you’re investing in these methods on your personal nationwide viewers as a safety towards counterspace weapons, you’re nonetheless growing counterspace weapons,” Johnson stated. “We’re seeing the additional weaponization of the house area with out numerous norms of habits. . . . And what we now have seen in apply will not be constructive norm for security, stability and sustainability. It’s truly a extremely disruptive norm.”
Together with functionality improvement, lately, extra international locations have restructured their nationwide safety house organizations and are speaking publicly about threats to house methods, CSIS writes.
Courtney Albon is C4ISRNET’s house and rising expertise reporter. She beforehand coated the U.S. Air Pressure and U.S. Area Pressure for Inside Protection.