Rep. Kevin McCarthy is the apparent candidate for the following speaker of the Home. Republicans flipped the chamber in 2022, and McCarthy is already Home minority chief. He has no severe rivals, and former President Donald Trump has endorsed his bid.
However McCarthy has an issue: He might not have the votes.
Republicans will begin the 118th Congress with solely a slim majority within the Home — simply 222 seats to the Democrats’ 212. And 6 incoming Republican representatives have already mentioned they won’t vote for McCarthy for speaker. That would depart McCarthy with 216 votes at most — two shy of a majority. And that’s simply the individuals who have publicly introduced their opposition. (A number of different Republicans are ideologically related and will oppose him, too.) So this may very well be the primary speaker election that has gone to a number of ballots since 1923.
However don’t get too excited, Democrats: This isn’t an episode of The West Wing the place a consensus candidate might change into speaker with help from Republicans and Democrats. There are nonetheless a number of methods this ends with a Speaker McCarthy.
There are a number of completely different instruments we will use to categorize the political pursuits of members of Congress. First, there’s the partisan lean of their districts. Then, there’s the metric DW-NOMINATE, whose first dimension makes use of roll-call votes to put members of Congress on a spectrum from -1 (most liberal) to 1 (most conservative).
In 2019, 12 Democrats voted for somebody aside from Rep. Nancy Pelosi for speaker. Based on these metrics, they had been all ideologically reasonable and hailed from aggressive districts, suggesting that they voted in opposition to Pelosi as a result of she was too liberal or it was politically disadvantageous to help her.
Pelosi’s Democratic opponents had been moderates
Democrats who voted for somebody aside from Nancy Pelosi for speaker in 2019, their district partisan leans on the time and the way they rating on the primary dimension of DW-NOMINATE
Consultant | District | Partisan Lean | DW-NOM (1st Dim.) |
---|---|---|---|
Anthony Brindisi | NY-22 | R+12 | -0.154 |
Jason Crow | CO-06 | D+2 | -0.278 |
Joe Cunningham | SC-01 | R+18 | -0.131 |
Jared Golden | ME-02 | R+8 | -0.114 |
Ron Sort | WI-03 | R+4 | -0.260 |
Conor Lamb | PA-17 | R+6 | -0.142 |
Ben McAdams | UT-04 | R+19 | -0.069 |
Kathleen Rice | NY-04 | D+9 | -0.280 |
Max Rose | NY-11 | R+7 | -0.176 |
Kurt Schrader | OR-05 | EVEN | -0.182 |
Mikie Sherrill | NJ-11 | R+7 | -0.206 |
Abigail Spanberger | VA-07 | R+5 | -0.176 |
Common | R+6 | -0.181 |
That’s not the case for the six Republicans who say they gained’t vote for McCarthy. They principally hail from safely pink seats and are staunchly conservative, suggesting they oppose McCarthy not as a result of he’s too far proper however as a result of he’s not conservative sufficient.
McCarthy’s Republican opponents are hard-core conservatives
Republicans who’ve mentioned they won’t help Kevin McCarthy for speaker, their district partisan leans, their DW-NOMINATE scores and whether or not they belong to the Home Freedom Caucus
Consultant | District | Partisan Lean | DW-NOM (1st dim.) | DW-NOM (2nd dim.) | Freedom Caucus? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Collins | GA-10 | R+31 | — | — | |
Andy Biggs | AZ-05 | R+24 | 0.849 | -0.528 | ✓ |
Ralph Norman | SC-05 | R+26 | 0.841 | -0.341 | ✓ |
Bob Good | VA-05 | R+15 | 0.800 | -0.600 | ✓ |
Matt Rosendale | MT-02 | R+30 | 0.750 | -0.515 | ✓ |
Matt Gaetz | FL-01 | R+38 | 0.611 | -0.640 | |
Common | R+27 | 0.770 | -0.525 |
However their opposition most likely isn’t simply primarily based on ideology. The 5 incumbent members on this record have very damaging scores on the second dimension of DW-NOMINATE, which roughly quantifies how institution (constructive numbers) or anti-establishment (damaging numbers) a member of Congress is. 4 of the 5 are additionally members of the Home Freedom Caucus, primarily the governing wing of the outdated tea get together — a really conservative group, notoriously hostile to the institution and unwilling to compromise.
McCarthy has been a member of Home GOP management since 2009, so it is smart that anti-establishment Republicans are eager to oppose him. Rep. Andy Biggs, additionally operating for speaker, has virtually confirmed this sentiment, saying, “Kevin McCarthy was created by, elevated by, and maintained by the institution.”
And sadly for McCarthy, a number of extra Republicans may agree with them. The following Home will embrace 10 different Republicans who’re both extra conservative or anti-establishment (in accordance with DW-NOMINATE) than not less than one anti-McCarthy Republican. Three (Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie and Tom McClintock) say they intend to vote for McCarthy, however the different seven may very well be ripe to oppose him. For instance, Rep. Chip Roy has but to say whom he’ll help for speaker on the Home ground. However he did nominate Biggs over McCarthy to be the GOP’s official nominee for speaker in a caucus assembly on Nov. 15.
These Republicans might additionally oppose McCarthy
Home Republicans who’re both extra conservative or extra anti-establishment than not less than one Republican who opposes Kevin McCarthy for speaker, in accordance with DW-NOMINATE, together with their district partisan leans and whether or not they belong to the Home Freedom Caucus
Consultant | District | Partisan Lean | DW-NOM (1st dim.) | DW-NOM (2nd dim.) | Freedom Caucus? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lauren Boebert | CO-03 | R+14 | 0.784 | -0.594 | ✓ |
Ken Buck | CO-04 | R+25 | 0.714 | -0.425 | ✓ |
Warren Davidson | OH-08 | R+27 | 0.667 | -0.357 | ✓ |
Paul Gosar | AZ-09 | R+33 | 0.697 | -0.482 | ✓ |
Andy Harris | MD-01 | R+25 | 0.671 | -0.395 | ✓ |
Scott Perry | PA-10 | R+9 | 0.664 | -0.436 | ✓ |
Chip Roy | TX-21 | R+25 | 0.800 | -0.600 | ✓ |
And the record of McCarthy opponents may very well be even longer due to new Republicans who had been simply elected in November. FiveThirtyEight canvassed all 41 Republican freshmen, and we recognized simply 17 who supported McCarthy for speaker: Reps.-elect Mark Alford, Carl Burlison, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Anthony D’Esposito, Russell Fry, Wesley Hunt, John James, Tom Kean Jr., Jen Kiggans, Nick LaLota, Nick Langworthy, Mike Lawler, Laurel Lee, Andy Ogles, George Santos and Brandon Williams in addition to Rep. Rudy Yakym.
Others both didn’t reply to our inquiries or mentioned they had been nonetheless making up their thoughts. For instance, in an e-mail, Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna advised FiveThirtyEight, “I’ll vote on January third for whoever permits me to greatest characterize my constituents… I don’t prefer to publicly disclose my personal conversations with my colleagues.” And a spokesperson for Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen advised us he “has not taken a determined place on speaker, however is praying and contemplating all data.” (Each Brecheen and Luna, by the way in which, had been elected with assist from the Home Freedom Caucus.)
However all this doesn’t imply McCarthy is doomed. He might not have 218 votes proper now, however there’s no apparent different to him, both. So the likeliest final result could also be that he wins the speakership after placing in a bit elbow grease. Based on Axios, McCarthy has been assembly with a few of his detractors. And whereas 4 have advised reporters that nothing will change their minds, the opposite two could also be extra malleable. Rep. Matt Rosendale advised Puck Information he would vote for McCarthy in “excessive circumstances,” which implies that there are some circumstances by which he would vote for him. In the meantime, Rep.-elect Mike Collins pledged to vote in opposition to McCarthy in September 2021 when he launched his marketing campaign. His spokesperson has not responded to a number of inquiries about whether or not he’ll hold his promise.
McCarthy has another excuse for optimism: Technically, he doesn’t even want 218 votes to change into speaker. He wants solely a majority of the votes forged for a named candidate. So if some members skip the vote or abstain (in Home parlance, vote “current”), it might decrease the quantity he must hit. Biggs, Rep. Matt Gaetz, Rep. Bob Good, Rep. Ralph Norman and Rosendale have all mentioned they won’t vote “current.” Nonetheless, that may very well be a means for them to not oppose McCarthy with out saying they modified their thoughts. So McCarthy might win the speakership if three of his opponents (together with Democrats!) skip the vote or vote “current,” assuming each different Republican votes for him.
As messy as these situations could be, they’re nonetheless likelier than the Democratic dream state of affairs that some reasonable Republicans would work with Democrats to elect a compromise candidate. The final time a majority get together didn’t elect a speaker was 1839, when Democrats held the Home majority however get together infighting led to the election of Whig Rep. Robert M.T. Hunter with bipartisan help. It’s unlikely that that streak will break when the 2 events are actively hostile towards one another and the furthest aside ideologically that they’ve been in not less than 50 years.
The official nominee of the get together that controls the Home has gained each speaker election since not less than 1913, even when its majority was narrower than it’s now. So it will not be easy crusing, however Republicans will possible get their most well-liked speaker a method or one other. Kevin McCarthy is simply hoping it’s him.