IT’S about political arithmetic, not morality. The DUP’s resolution to carry down Stormont over the protocol is a determined try to win votes and seats within the coming election.
estroying devolution doesn’t come naturally to Sir Jeffrey Donaldson – it’s not in his DNA. However that is the one path to the get together clawing again sufficient assist to stay the most important within the Meeting.
Crucial character within the drama unfolding on the DUP gathering in Belfast’s Crowne Plaza resort this night isn’t there – and isn’t even a celebration member.
With out Jim Allister’s TUV sitting persistently on round 12pc in successive LucidTalk opinion polls, it will be enterprise as traditional for the DUP in Parliament Buildings, protocol or no protocol.
On solely 17pc within the newest ballot a fortnight in the past, Donaldson actually had no different alternative. He wanted to swerve to the best and try to win again a major chunk of these voters who had drifted to his hardline rival.
However this technique is just not with out hazard. As each different get together bar the TUV rounds on the DUP, it’s possible that the get together will lose some mushy assist to the Ulster Unionists.
Each argument that it made about Sinn Fein’s “irresponsibility” in crashing Stormont in 2017 can be employed towards Donaldson’s get together now.
These on hospital ready lists, companies, faculties in disaster – all of them deserve higher, we’ll hear time and time once more.
The DUP will stand within the court docket of public opinion accused by its opponents of enjoying cynical, egocentric politics with folks’s lives.
But Donaldson will have a look at these ballot figures and imagine he’s finished the best factor for his get together. The LucidTalk ballot confirmed 98pc of TUV voters need the Govt introduced down if the protocol isn’t binned.
Sir Jeffrey will now imagine he can win a giant chunk of them again to his get together. Some 17pc of DUP voters had been towards the get together collapsing the Govt. So he’s banking on shedding solely a trickle of assist whereas anticipating to welcome again a flood.
An early election would go well with the DUP, though the Electoral Workplace will certainly oppose that on logistical grounds throughout an ongoing pandemic.
In these three months till Might 5, there may be the potential for some unionists who initially backed flattening Stormont to have a change of coronary heart if there’s a major impact on public companies.
It’s a high-wire act for Donaldson however unionist disillusionment together with his get together means he had no different alternative however to stroll it if the DUP is to outlive.