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The primary MPs have begun arriving on the QEII Centre in Westminster the place the subsequent prime minister is because of be introduced at 12.30pm, PA Media experiences. PA says Oliver Dowden, the previous celebration co-chair, arrived round 50 minutes forward of the announcement. Penny Mordaunt, an earlier contender within the Conservative celebration management competitors, arrived shortly afterwards. Neither responded to the big media scrum assembled exterior.
On his final full day in workplace Boris Johnson has stated that he has requested officers to look once more on the case for honouring veterans of the UK’s nuclear testing programme with medals. In an open letter he additionally stated he was commissioning an oral historical past of their achievements.
From ITV’s Anushka Asthana
Survation has launched some new polling this morning suggesting that Labour has a 10-point lead over the Conservatives – however that if respondents are instructed Keir Starmer is the Labour chief, and Liz Truss the Tory chief, the Labour lead rises to 17 factors.
The principle Tory management information within the papers this morning might be the story about Liz Truss contemplating freezing power costs. (See 8.10am.) However listed here are a few of the different tales a few Truss premiership.
Treasury sources have instructed i that Ms Truss, who’s extensively anticipated to be confirmed because the nation’s subsequent Prime Minister, is eager on cancelling Rishi Sunak’s freezing of the 40 per cent tax threshold at £50,270 and elevating it by round £30,000.
The transfer would imply that these incomes between £12,570 and £80,000 would pay simply 20 per cent on their earnings on tax, whereas these incomes lower than £12,570 would proceed to be exempt from revenue tax.
The tax lower will imply round three million individuals will now not pay larger price tax, saving them a mean of round £3,000 a 12 months. The saving shall be round £6,000 for somebody on an annual wage of £80,000 or extra.
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Oliver Wright within the Occasions says Samantha Jones, who was appointed everlasting secretary and chief working officer at Downing Avenue earlier this 12 months after the Partygate scandal, will lose her submit if Truss turns into PM. Wright says different senior officers will go away. He says:
Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the nationwide safety adviser, can also be anticipated to be moved on to get replaced by the Russia knowledgeable Sir Tim Barrow, who Truss labored with on the International Workplace.
Truss additionally intends to rapidly appoint a brand new principal personal secretary, whereas Simon Case, the cupboard secretary and head of the civil service, is just not anticipated to remain on. Truss is assumed to favour James Bowler, everlasting secretary on the Division for Worldwide Commerce, for the position.
Paul Goodman, the previous Tory MP who edits the ConservativeHome web site, has abstract of expectations as to what Liz Truss’s margin of victory is likely to be.
Philip Hammond, who was chancellor when Theresa Might was prime minister, has joined Rupert Harrison, one other Tory Treasury alumnus (see 10.02am), in criticising the Truss camp this morning for disparaging Treasury orthodoxy. Hammond instructed Occasions Radio:
After I hear individuals speaking about Treasury orthodoxy, I do fear that what they could typically be speaking about are financial information of life. And sure, the Treasury will be sure that politicians, nevertheless senior, are confronted with the realities of the financial information of life. “Sure, Minister, it’s possible you’ll want to do that. However you should perceive that the implications shall be as follows.” And we are able to’t legislate to alter the legal guidelines of economics, sadly. And I feel Liz Truss understands that very effectively.
Clearly, I labored very intently along with her. She was chief secretary to the Treasury once I was chancellor, she understands the legal guidelines of economics in addition to anyone does. And it’s important that the political options {that a} authorities crafts, go together with the grain of the legal guidelines of economics, as a result of in case you try to confront the legal guidelines of economics, you’ll come unstuck.
Hammond additionally stated individuals ought to recognise that prime power costs had been right here to remain. He defined:
I feel it’s proper and unavoidable that the federal government wants to offer assist to individuals coping with these big power payments as a brief time period resolution, however now we have to be clear, and I feel [Truss] shall be clear, that this may solely be authorities assist to take care of the quick emergency power costs being sky excessive, largely due to the battle in Ukraine.
On the identical time we’ve received to be sincere about the truth that power payments sooner or later are going to be larger than they had been, historically, as we transfer to make sure power self sufficiency, and to decarbonise our economies. That has all the time been the case; decarbonisation doesn’t come free.
My colleague Richard Partington, the Guardian’s economics correspondent, can also be unimpressed by the case for “Trussonomics” set out by Kwasi Kwarteng (who doesn’t use the time period himself) in his FT article. (See 9.23am.)
Chris Giles, economics editor on the FT, is sceptical concerning the plan from Liz Truss to deal with progress. (See 9.23am.)
And Rupert Harrison, who was chief of workers to George Osborne when he was chancellor, doesn’t settle for her argument that earlier governments didn’t prioritise progress too.
Robert Peston, ITV’s politcal editor (and one of many few political editors with a background in enterprise reporting), has posted an fascinating Twitter thread on the information that Liz Truss is contemplating freezing power costs. (See 8.10am.) Homeowners would nonetheless find yourself paying, he says, within the thread beginning right here.
Peston additionally says the plan (in as far as there’s a plan – nothing has been confirmed on the document but) has “much in common with Corbynomics”.
Faisal Islam, the BBC’s economics editor, says individuals within the power trade assume that, if Liz Truss does need to freeze power payments (see 8.10am), she must find yourself half funding that by means of a windfall tax. However Truss has dominated out an extra windfall tax on power firms.
Simon Coveney, the Irish overseas minister, instructed RTE’s Morning Eire this morning that Liz Truss was a “gifted, very energetic politician” however that her assist for the Northern Eire protocol invoice had “created a number of rigidity and undermined belief” with Eire. He went on:
She goes to be the subsequent prime minister, and we’ll work along with her and her workforce, however I hope we are able to change the course of journey for British-Irish relations that we’ve seen during the last couple of years, which actually has been certainly one of rigidity and standoff on crucial points – predominantly associated to Northern Eire.
Truss would prioritise stimulating progress over redistributing wealth, says main ally Kwasi Kwarteng
Kwasi Kwarteng, the enterprise secretary, is already pencilled in as the subsequent chancellor if Liz Truss turns into prime minister. The pair have been associates and allies for years – they had been among the many authors of the Thatcherite polemic Britannia Unchained written collectively by 5 Tory backbenchers in 2012 – and they’re close to neighbours in Greenwich. In an article for the Monetary Occasions, Kwarteng has defended her method to the financial system, and addressed a few of the considerations raised by the Institute for Fiscal Research. (See 8.48am.) Listed below are the important thing factors.
As prime minister, Liz will take quick motion if elected that can assist individuals with the challenges we face within the coming months, and lay the groundwork for the change we’d like in the long run. This implies reducing taxes, placing a reimbursement into individuals’s pockets and unshackling our companies from burdensome taxes and unsuitable rules. Given the severity of the disaster we face, there’ll must be some fiscal loosening to assist individuals by means of the winter. That’s completely the best factor to do in these exceptionally tough occasions.
The UK’s ratio of debt to gross home product is decrease than some other G7 nation besides Germany, so we don’t want extreme fiscal tightening. The OECD has stated that the present authorities coverage is contractionary, which is able to solely ship us right into a destructive spiral when the intention must be to do the alternative. However I need to present reassurance that this shall be accomplished in a fiscally accountable means. Liz is dedicated to a lean state and, because the quick shock subsides, we’ll work to scale back the debt-to-GDP ratio over time.
On this passage Kwarteng appears to be in search of to counter the declare from Rishi Sunak, in an interview with the FT final week, that Truss’s insurance policies might led to worldwide buyers dropping confidence within the UK financial system.
Financial progress is the important thing to delivering for the British individuals and unlocking alternative throughout the nation. And will probably be Liz’s prime precedence. She is going to make it her intention to get us to 2.5% development progress, which is able to ship larger wages, extra vibrant excessive streets and thrilling alternatives right here within the UK for our youngsters and grandchildren. And in the end, larger tax revenues.
For a lot of the postwar interval the development price of progress was at this stage or above, however progress has been extra sluggish just lately, notably within the final decade.
We do not need to appease the voices of decline. The identical previous financial managerialism has left us with a stagnating financial system and anaemic progress, with labour productiveness rising at simply 0.4% a 12 months because the monetary disaster. Taxes are actually at their highest in 70 years. This poisonous mixture must be urgently addressed.
We must be decisive and do issues in another way. That’s what Liz plans. As a substitute of managing one short-term shock after one other, ducking or delaying the tough reforms wanted for lasting financial progress, as prime minister she’s going to take daring motion to alter issues for good.
Meaning specializing in how we unlock funding and progress, fairly than how we tax and spend. It’s about rising the scale of the UK financial system, not burying our heads in a redistributive battle over what’s left.
This confirms what Truss herself signalled in her BBC interview with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday. When it was put to her that the wealthy would achieve most from her plan to reverse the nationwide insurance coverage enhance, Truss insisted her proposal was “honest”. She additionally stated:
To take a look at all the things by means of the lens of redistribution, I consider is improper as a result of what I’m about is about rising the financial system. And rising the financial system advantages all people.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Research thinktank, instructed the At the moment programme that Liz Truss’s financial insurance policies would enhance inflation.
Referring to her argument {that a} new financial method is required as a result of progress has been so weak during the last decade or extra, he stated:
She’s clearly completely proper that we’ve had dreadful progress during the last 15 years. However the fact is that merely reducing taxes, reducing nationwide insurance coverage contributions, for instance, is just not a method for progress.
And it’s clearly pumping a big amount of cash into the financial system on prime of the £30bn we’ve already needed to assist power payments, on prime of the presumably many, many tens of billions extra which might be going to return [on top of] that, and on prime of what’s going to should be more cash for public companies.
Now put all of that collectively and that can result in not simply extraordinarily excessive borrowing within the brief run, but additionally extra inflationary strain.
Management contest went on ‘too lengthy’, says treasurer of 1922 Committee
Many people felt that the Conservative celebration management contest went on for too lengthy and Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, a senior determine within the celebration equipment, instructed the At the moment programme this morning that he agreed. Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the backbench 1922 Committee, stated there must be a “rethink” of the timetable earlier than the subsequent contest. He defined:
I’d shorten the method of members within the nation.
There was no motive why it couldn’t have been shortened. We might have had a couple of hustings a day.
I feel it’s simply been too lengthy.
Clifton-Brown additionally stated that, regardless of being a member of the 1922 Committee’s govt, he didn’t but know the consequence, which is being publicly introduced at 12.30pm. He stated:
I think Sir Graham [Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee) knows, but as always he is completely inscrutable on these matters.
Liz Truss reportedly planning energy bill freeze after her expected election as new Tory leader and next PM
Good morning. Parties hold leadership contests so that candidates can set out their policies and members can choose which they like best. But the Conservative party ballot, which will end today with Liz Truss all but certain to be chosen as the new leader, to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister after an audience with the Queen tomorrow, has seen that process inverted. The cost of energy will pose the biggest crisis for the next PM, but Truss and her rival, Rishi Sunak, only spoke in general terms about how they would handle it and yesterday Truss, in her interview for the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, even suggested it would be improper for her to say what she would do. Sounding like a chancellor before budget day, Truss said:
What I want to reassure people is I will act, if elected as prime minister, within one week. Now, what I can’t do, Laura, on this show, is tell you exactly what that announcement would be … It would be completely wrong.
Truss argued that her reticence was justified because she had not been confirmed as leader yet, and she suggested that she needed a briefing from No 10 before she could take final decisions.
Well, maybe. But perhaps Truss is also nervous about confirming that her first act as PM will be to announce a freeze on energy bills – a policy proposed by Labour and the Lib Dems last month, and also championed by Gordon Brown (who was regularly cited by Truss during the campaign as representing the sort of economic policy she rejected). Truss has not confirmed that she will introduce some sort of energy price freeze. But she did not deny that she was considering this in her BBC interview yesterday, and in the papers this morning there are multiple reports saying that this is what she is planning.
In their splash for the Daily Telegraph, Ben Riley-Smith and Tony Diver say “campaign sources familiar with discussions, and energy company insiders who have been consulted, have said that a freeze of some form is now expected”. They go on:
Scottish Power has proposed a £100 billion plan for a two-year energy bill freeze, financed by loans underwritten by the Treasury. The proposal is backed by other energy firms.
One energy company source said the idea has been “extremely actively explored” by Truss campaign figures and that Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary tipped to become chancellor if Ms Truss wins, appeared “very open” to options for a freeze.
A second industry source confirmed the proposal was being scrutinised by the Truss campaign.
Truss team insiders have told The Telegraph the same. One said: “I’m confident there will be a mechanism introduced that freezes bills.” Another said the idea had been discussed “quite a lot in the last fortnight”.
The specifics of such an energy bills freeze – exactly who would benefit, how long for, at what price level and the degree to which the taxpayer would cover the cost – remains a point of debate, according to sources.
And in the Times Geraldine Scott, Oliver Wright and Henry Zeffman report the same. They say:
Senior Tories lined up for appointments in Truss’s cabinet have been told “in no uncertain terms” not to scorn the idea that energy bills could be frozen.
Industry sources said that a price freeze for consumers was “the only conversation that anyone was having with the government”, including discussions involving Kwasi Kwarteng, who is expected to be Truss’s chancellor.
“The plan is to introduce some kind of artificial price cap for consumers combined with a mechanism for reimbursing suppliers,” one source said. “Plans are reasonably well advanced and involve not just civil servants but also ministers lined up for jobs by Truss.”
The Conservative party will announce the results of the leadership contest at 12.30pm at the QEII Centre in London. The winner will then deliver a short speech, but will not formally become prime minister until after Johnson tenders his resignation to the Queen at Balmoral tomorrow.
My colleague Archie Bland has used his First Edition briefing to explain how the first week, the first 100 days and the first year for Truss may unfold if, as expected, she is the victor.
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