For the final week, it’s been practically unimaginable to say simply the place the entrance line between Ukrainian forces and Russian invaders actually fell. That was very true within the days instantly following the liberation of Izyum, when Ukrainian scouts ranged far out into Luhansk Oblast and Russian forces appeared to maintain proper on operating—even when Ukrainian troops stopped to handle of us in newly freed cities.
The place issues appear to be falling out within the space now could be simply the place many predicted: alongside the banks of the Oskil River. Ukrainian forces had crossed the river in a minimum of three areas and engaged in fight at areas a great 20 kilometers on the japanese facet of the divide. Nevertheless, when it got here time to cool down and maintain territory, plainly each Ukraine and Russia are, for now, settling in alongside what often is the final massive geographic characteristic in need of the Aidar River, deep in Russian-occupied territory.
Ukraine should have some forces throughout the river north of Horokhovatka. But when so, they don’t appear to be advancing at this second, or a minimum of there are not any new stories of battles fought / cities liberated. The truth is, the one lively fight within the space on Thursday appears to be within the south, simply throughout the Siverskyi Donets River, across the metropolis of Lyman.
Even earlier than the Kharkiv counteroffensive actually kicked off, Ukraine was capable of transfer forces throughout the river into Staryi Karavan and Ozerne, apparently unopposed. However despite the fact that Ukraine had forces on the south facet of Lyman earlier this week, Russia reportedly strengthened that location with troops retreating from Izyum. It’s onerous to inform simply how a lot preventing is definitely happening within the metropolis. NASA FIRMS information exhibits only a few hotspots within the space during the last 5 days, and Lyman proper now could also be extra of a contest of troops moving into place, than actively exchanging artillery.
Over to the west, instantly south of the dam throughout the Oskil, there have been stories on Thursday (1PM ET / 10 PM in Kyiv) that Ukrainian forces had taken Studenok and the neighboring city of Sosnove.
[NOTE: At this point, there was a site issue that ate the second half of this post … I’m trying to restore it from what I can remember. Apologies for those who are seeing something different now than what was in here originally.]
Usually, the sources for the Studenok and Sosnove would have been ok to mark them on the map, however since this week has included a variety of … enthusiastic stories even from usually conservative sources, I’m holding off on making any modifications for now.
Talking of enthusiastic calls. right here’s the Kherson map from final night time. That map mirrored a name that Kyselivka was as soon as once more totally below Ukrainian management. Nevertheless, that seems to not fairly be the case.
Kyselivka often is the most “Ukraine has taken it. No it hasn’t” level on your complete map. That’s as a result of this Kyselivka is usually confused with one other Kyselivka simply 25km to the north (how does anybody within the space maintain them straight?). However on this case, there’s one other difficulty.
For a while, the variety of individuals truly in Kyselivka (pre-invasion inhabitants 2,500, present inhabitants roughly 0) has been shrinking. Ukrainian forces held on to the western fringe of the city, whereas a slowly-declining Russian group held the east. Now there are stories that Russia has fully left the city. Solely that doesn’t imply that Ukraine has totally occupied it.
That’s as a result of Kyselivka is simply 10km west of a complete metric a$$-ton of Russian artillery close to Chornobaivka. Occupying what’s left of your complete city is thought to be extremely unhealthy, and unimaginable to keep up as long as Russia has some shells left for these weapons. So proper now, Ukraine doesn’t a lot have Kyselivka because it is ready to look into Kyselivka and see that it’s satisfyingly freed from Russians.
And that’s it. If all this looks as if fairly small potatoes after the thrill of the final week, that’s as a result of Ukraine is now making an attempt to take a seat again and digest a really giant meal. Not solely did it simply liberate 8,500 sq km, filled with 350 villages and 150,000 individuals all of whom must be attended to, it’s additionally coping with 1000’s of Russian prisoners and sufficient captured Russian tools to launch a brand new division. In tanks alone, it looks as if Ukraine’s seize rely is prone to exceed 100. That’s simply captured, not together with destroyed.
[NOTE: And this is the point where an error chopped off what remained again … which made me pretty much surrender. Sorry for those who commented/read the previous version. Because now I’m killing it and starting this over here. And then I’m going to walk away and stop looking.]
We may fill every week with nothing however pictures of Russian {hardware} that now must be checked for boobytraps, despatched again from the entrance line for upkeep, given some fast rebadging, a recent tank of gas, and a brand new praise of provides earlier than using out as a part of the Ukrainian military. And with regards to all these Russian ammunition depots which were recovered in wonderful situation …
All of the materiel must be moved from these areas earlier than somebody in Russia wakes up and says “hey, didn’t we go away a variety of artillery shells proper about there?” If somebody in Russia decides they’ll spare a missile from going after civilian targets, there may truly be a problem right here. However then, that will imply they couldn’t spend that missile capturing at condominium buildings or dams.