By Todd Carney for RealClearPolitics
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s choice to ship a aircraft of immigrants to Martha’s Winery sparked debate on a spread of points, together with how the transfer would play out politically. Politico revealed a piece final week that claimed DeSantis’s relocation of immigrants would price him in South Florida, the place many Hispanics reside.
The piece quoted liberal sources who stated DeSantis would come off trying just like the tyrants many Hispanic voters fled. However a take a look at political developments during the last decade present Politico is misreading Hispanic voters.
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In 2008 and 2012, the Republican Occasion did more and more worse with Hispanic voters nationwide. In 2004, President George W. Bush misplaced Hispanics 58 % to 40 %; in 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain misplaced them 67 % to 31 %; and in 2012, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney misplaced Hispanic voters 71 % to 27 %.
Florida adopted an identical development on the presidential stage. Bush gained Hispanic voters 56 % to 44 % in 2004, McCain misplaced them 57 % to 42 % in 2008, and Romney misplaced them 60 % to 39 % in 2012.
Florida Hispanics had historically been to the proper of Hispanic voters nationwide, as a result of many fled communist dictators or got here from households that did. These voters appreciated the GOP’s powerful stances in opposition to communism. However after Romney’s routing, most political analysts began to imagine youthful Hispanic Floridians would fall consistent with nationwide Hispanic voting developments.
Hispanic voters’ rejection of Republicans prompted some to embrace totally different types of amnesty. However in 2015, then businessman Donald Trump threw a wrench in these plans by working for president. From the beginning, Trump known as for finishing the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and spoke in opposition to unlawful immigrants who have been criminals. Whereas a lot of the GOP ran away from Trump’s views, GOP presidential major voters embraced them and nominated Trump.
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Within the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton did a bit worse with Hispanic voters than Obama had within the 2008 and 2012 elections, receiving 66 % of their vote. In the meantime, Trump did marginally higher than Romney in 2012 and acquired 28 % of the Hispanic vote. Curiously in Florida, Trump did somewhat worse than Romney, as he misplaced Hispanic voters 62 % to 35 %.
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Regardless of utilizing a a lot harsher tone on immigration than Romney, Trump’s basic stability amongst Hispanic voters was the primary clue that anti-immigration stances wouldn’t doom the GOP.
As president, Trump didn’t retreat from powerful immigration stances. He continually fought for a border wall, and he detained households that got here to the U.S. illegally, which liberals demonized as “household separation” and “placing kids in cages.” Liberals’ assaults in opposition to Trump on household separation mirrored what liberals have stated about DeSantis. They accused each Trump and DeSantis of being racist and heartless tyrants who use weak immigrants as political pawns.
In 2020, Trump improved his share of the Hispanic vote, shedding it 65 % to 32 % – the perfect displaying for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. In Florida, Trump solely misplaced Hispanics 53 % to 46 %. His margin of defeat with Hispanic voters shrunk by 20 factors in Florida regardless of liberals’ fixed demonization marketing campaign.
Since 2020, polls have repeatedly proven that Hispanics are changing into extra conservative though the GOP has not deserted Trump’s powerful immigration rhetoric. Liberals have derisively blamed Hispanics’ warming to the GOP on misinformation, however Hispanic voters are numerous identical to different voting blocs and have an array of issues.
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Democrats’ failure on inflation and woke insurance policies have dismayed many Hispanics, and a few even need more durable approaches on immigration, which correspond with GOP messaging.
Regardless of Trump’s seemingly unfriendly rhetoric, most of the similar Hispanics that Democrats declare DeSantis will lose voted for Trump in 2020. Subsequently, it’s unlikely DeSantis will shed Hispanic assist over Martha’s Winery. The media is clinging to out-of-date standard narratives about Hispanics, an error that has triggered them to overlook the true issues of Hispanic voters.
Syndicated with permission from RealClearWire.
Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Legislation College.
The opinions expressed by contributors and/or content material companions are their very own and don’t essentially mirror the views of The Political Insider.