The 2021 ANU Myanmar Replace was held in Canberra 15-17 July. Dr Charlotte Galloway, former director of the ANU Myanmar Analysis Centre and a co-convenor of this 12 months’s replace writes on this 12 months’s Replace, which has taken place throughout what’s a turbulent chapter in Myanmar’s historical past.
The 2021 ANU Myanmar Replace was held on 15-17 July. Co-convened on my own, Jonathan Liljeblad, Nick Cheesman, Dinith Adikari, Michael Dunford and Justine Chambers, the Replace grew to become a convention that captured a selected second in Myanmar’s turbulent post-independence historical past.
Reflecting on the convention I couldn’t assist however distinction this with the 2019 convention which had the theme of ‘Dwelling with Myanmar’ and marked the 20th anniversary of the Replace. We had extra attendees, and extra Myanmar audio system than ever earlier than. There was large ranging dialogue on Myanmar’s achievements and persisting difficulties, all addressed with an optimistic outlook for change by a various vary of presenters from authorities, larger training establishments, NGOs and civil society organisations. Myanmar’s analysis capability was on an upward trajectory and all of us appeared ahead to the 2021 Replace, by no means predicting the present scenario.
COVID-19 proved the primary problem. I final visited Myanmar in February 2020, returning to Australia simply because the world was closing to worldwide journey. I used to be engaged on a world collaborative heritage undertaking at Bagan which was first suspended on account of COVID-19, and has since been terminated as a result of coup. I do know many colleagues share comparable experiences of now-cancelled analysis tasks, and we marvel when, and if, we will resume our Myanmar-based analysis.
As we ready for this convention, Myanmar and COVID-19 grew to become a transparent theme, even overshadowing the 2020 November elections. Nevertheless, the 2021 February 1 army coup modified every part. A lot of our Myanmar colleagues withdrew their papers, some for safety causes and others just because there have been different pressing priorities. As convenors, we appreciated that this Replace wanted to incorporate the anticipated tutorial analysis content material, an indicator of the updates, however it was additionally crucial to allow attendees to listen to views from our Myanmar colleagues and the hottest commentary attainable. To that finish the Replace shifted from its typical format and included, on the finish of every day, extra casual displays from well-known Myanmar nationals. Khin Zaw Win (Director of Tampadipa Institute, Yangon), Lian Hmung Sakhong (Union Minister, Nationwide Unity Authorities) and Swe Win (Editor-in-Chief Myanmar Now) delivered to the convention their present views on Myanmar, and their contributions to the Replace allowed us to share of their very actual experiences.
The keynote tackle from Professor Yanghee Lee (former UN Particular Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar) highlighted a theme that recurred all through the convention relating to Myanmar’s army, the Tatmadaw, particularly that it has by no means been suppressed, even during the last decade. As Khin Zaw Win remarked, the bedrock hasn’t modified. And techniques to maneuver ahead and create a steady type of democratic authorities that’s acceptable for Myanmar are complicated and daunting.
The position of worldwide actors was raised by many audio system and thru the Q&A classes, with no clear consensus for efficient and fast actions. Nicholas Coppel, former Australian Ambassador to Myanmar, gave a concise abstract of assorted UN rules and pointers that introduced residence how tough it’s for international governments to take motion abroad’s disaster.
One other theme that got here via strongly was the continued division between ethnic teams. Problems with id have been distinguished on the 2019 Myanmar Replace, and stay. Even at the moment of disaster there isn’t a definitive “them and us”, with some ethnic armed teams not talking out overtly in opposition to the army coup. This gave us some understanding of the really complicated and deep-seated points that also persist in Myanmar.
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Myanmar Replace 2021: Twin crises – COVID-19 and the coup
Whereas it seems that the army has not modified a lot during the last decade, the nation and its folks definitely have.
I used to be to listen to from Lian Sakhong that the Nationwide Unity Authorities’s plan for a draft structure relies on enter from all ethnic areas, and that it will seek advice from a secular state. I take into account this a constructive strategy. A brand new structure that has widespread common assist is important to the long-term stability of Myanmar.
Nevertheless, reaching that is more likely to be very problematic. For no matter mannequin of federalism or democracy Myanmar chooses, central to success is compromise and negotiation. It’s merely unimaginable to offer all folks every part that they need, particularly in a such an ethnically and religiously complicated setting. Choices have to be made about what’s vital to permit folks to retain ethnic id, tradition and values and what might be shared aspirations. Solely then will the bedrock be modified.
It was very encouraging to listen to from these presenters who have been sharing current Myanmar-based analysis, significantly in relation to COVID-19 and its impression. Whereas Myanmar audio system have been few, for the aforementioned causes, Myanmar researchers have been in a position to be represented via displays given by their undertaking companions. I do know I’m not alone in saying I’m discovering it tough to take a seat and write up my Myanmar analysis proper now. Fairly frankly it appears at instances irrelevant to what our mates and colleagues in Myanmar are dealing with. But, it’s so essential to persist. The fine-grained analysis does exist to tell coverage and methods. Linda Calabrese’s presentation provided a “constructing again higher” situation, and different audio system as we speak have offered arduous information that can be utilized to develop different “constructing again higher” situations, anticipating Myanmar’s future restoration. As a community of students at the moment we needs to be doing what we are able to with our tutorial information to tell our personal governments and decision-makers about what is occurring. And we owe it to these whom we have now labored with in Myanmar to do what we are able to to maintain their scenario within the public eye.
The convention theme moved from COVID-19 to the coup and is now arguably again to COVID. Within the final 2 days of the convention Fb posts from Myanmar mates shifted virtually fully to COVID considerations: the dearth of oxygen, and the sickness and deaths of their household and mates. This case is uncontrolled. It was urged by one speaker that COVID might give the Tatmadaw and worldwide neighborhood a chance to interact via provision of humanitarian help, however even when this occurs, it’s going to possible be too little too late. The pictures and movies present what we already know—the well being care system has collapsed. The Tatmadaw will likely be equally affected—troopers and their households are all topic to the identical dangers from COVID-19 and this spiralling outbreak might properly change the course of the coup.
Solely time will inform what Myanmar’s future will likely be. As Morten Pedersen reiterated yesterday, we might do properly to know Myanmar’s historical past earlier than contemplating how one can tackle the present scenario. There are such a lot of complicated threads that want consideration and determination, and plenty of are, sadly, well-known: the random arrests of individuals together with youngsters, a tactic that has been utilized by the army earlier than to instil worry within the inhabitants; a blatant disregard of human rights; a judicial system that has no credibility; a collapsing economic system and a breakdown of the training system which is able to see one more technology of Myanmar college students deprived. These are only a few examples.
And as Htwe Htwe Thein (Curtin College) talked about throughout the Financial Replace there’s the well-studied problem of trust-building. Belief-building might want to begin another time earlier than significant and sustainable progress might be made. Within the meantime, Myanmar will discover itself but once more on the backside of most growth indicators.
What’s new in discussions relating to the army coup is the position of the web, Era Z, and an total higher networked society. The impression of those elements is the massive unknown—and with COVID-19, and a coup, predicting the course of Myanmar’s future might finest be put within the palms of the astrologers.
Nevertheless, despite these dire circumstances I consider the resilience of Myanmar’s inhabitants will see the nation emerge from these present crises—we simply don’t know when or what that can seem like.
The Myanmar Replace will re-convene in 2023 and we are going to little doubt be reflecting on among the conversations and predictions made at this convention. There will likely be an extra publication based mostly on the Replace displays, and it’s hoped the extra casual displays from our audio system might be captured, representing as they do a big time and place in Myanmar’s historical past. Hopefully within the Myanmar Replace 2023 our Myanmar colleagues will once more be capable of take part overtly with the worldwide neighborhood of students.
The ANU Myanmar Replace was supported by the ANU’s Faculty of Asia and the Pacific, and IDRC Canada. The place presenters have given permission movies of the classes will likely be accessible for public entry. Some podcasts are already accessible via Myanmar Musings. https://www.myanmarmusings.com The convention program is on the market at https://myanmar.anu.edu.au/myanmar-update/myanmar-update-2021-living-pandemic-and-coup
A graduate workshop will likely be held in Canberra later this 12 months, timing being very COVID-dependent. IDRC sponsorship will permit the MRC to supply scholarships to Myanmar college students at the moment in Australia to journey to Canberra to attend and assist assist them with their analysis and research at this very tough time.