We haven’t talked a lot about Pavlivka earlier than (prewar inhabitants: 1,000).
Pavlivka is positioned in a grinding a part of the entrance. Russia has occupied the purple territory on this map since 2014, so you may see the final lack of progress pushing westward because the warfare started. Most of these crimson beneficial properties have come from the south, up from Mariupol.
This line hasn’t budged very a lot because the Spring, but Russia appears very on this space of late, so what’s at play? Maybe it’s logistics:
With the destruction of the rail line on the Kerch Bridge into Crimea (which nonetheless hasn’t been repaired), Russia is at present struggling to provide Kherson and occupied territory in southeastern Ukraine through rail. The rail connection between Mariupol and the remainder of that area is at present beneath fireplace management of Ukrainian tube artillery. The magenta ring is the vary of M777 tube artillery utilizing standard-range rounds—21 kilometers, or 13 miles.
Nonetheless, that complete east-west rail line is at present in vary of HIMARS rockets, in addition to extended-range howitzers and speciality rounds. A French Caesar self-propelled artillery gun has a firing vary of 42 kilometers (26 miles), so Ukraine would solely be barely inconvenienced by any Russian beneficial properties alongside that entrance. That rail line isn’t changing into operational any time quickly.
Regardless of that, Russia launched an enormous assault on the settlement someday round October 30-31. First video of the battle was this video:
That is known as the “flying tank man” video, as a physique is thrown upon the tank’s detonation. This drone view of the ambush exhibits it extra clearly, so click on at your personal discretion. The advantage of that linked video is that it gave the geolocators the fabric they wanted to do their work.
The assaults got here head-on from the south. “Killbox” is the suitable phrase. Have a look at this video compilation of Russian armor decimated in that strategy:
Early final week, Russian sources had been claiming victory. And we do know that Russian forces did ultimately push their means into the city. But it surely wasn’t lengthy earlier than the tone from Russian sources was turning sour, as one Russian Telegram supply reported:
You understand, there have been persistent rumors “across the metropolis” that,
identical to within the Nice Patriotic Battle, the commander who takes
Ugledar [Vuledar] will likely be given a Hero. Now, they are saying the identical factor, however we’re already speaking about Pavlovka, which I bear in mind was already “cleaned up”, however one thing went incorrect. In actuality, they entered the outskirts and that is it, the method stalled, in basic the scenario is evident: “pull-push” will proceed for fairly a very long time and, probably, with out specific success. Why does this occur? The mobilization in Russia has handed, the forces at the moment are out there, proper? The reply is easy: it is on the chest. A harsh reply, however a real one, and the village we’re speaking about is definitely Pavlovka.
Really, Russia acquired by Ukrainian traces, deeper than the “outskirts.” Listed here are Ukrainian forces celebrating the seize of a Russian tank with the engine nonetheless operating contained in the city, reportedly its middle:
We additionally know, from Russian experiences, that Ukrainian forces counterattacked and trapped a big contingent of naval infantry troops contained in the city. Right here’s a report from Russian milblogger Alexey Sukonkin:
Occasions in Pavlivka, nevertheless, proceed to develop. Members say that at current there’s a dilemma: so as to withdraw exhausted items from Pavlivka, contemporary ones should be introduced in. There are not any contemporary items, no alternative to withdraw and exchange, as a result of all the things is beneath fireplace from Uhledar and different instructions. And the enemy continues to methodically stage Pavlova to the bottom with artillery. What to do?
And this query needs to be requested to those that began this
bloody mess.
Right here is video of Ukrainian infantry sweeping by the village throughout its recapture, seemingly clearing it of these trapped Russian marines:
(Ignore the “94 kilometers from Mariupol” factor, making it sound as if these had been new Ukrainian beneficial properties. This had at all times been Ukrainian held territory.)
And right here is visible proof that Pavlivka is evident of Russian presence:
On account of this slaughter, Pavlivka now has a brand new distinction—it’s the graveyard of the a hundred and fifty fifth Naval Infantry Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet. Livid members of that unit have written this letter extensively circulating by Russian Telegram.
Full letter from the troopers of the a hundred and fifty fifth Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet addressed to the Governor of Primorsky Krai:
“Expensive Oleg Nikolaevich. The Marines of the a hundred and fifty fifth Marine Brigade are attraction to you. As soon as once more, Normal Muradov and his fellow countryman Akhmedov threw us into an incomprehensible offensive to ensure that Muradov to earn bonuses from Gerasimov, and Muradov promised to Akhmedov the Hero of Russia award.
In consequence, us and Kamchatka marines are advancing on Pavlivka. On account of the “rigorously” deliberate offensive by the “nice commanders”, we misplaced about 300 individuals killed, wounded and lacking in 4 days. 50 p.c of automobiles. That is simply our brigade. The command of the district, along with Akhmedov, cover this and exchange the official figures of losses for worry of duty.
How are they planning to seize the settlement by slipping by the tree plantations by which the enemy remained, now destroying our guys on the wounded evacuation and ammunition provide routes? As well as, Pavlivka is decrease than Uhledar, they’re putting us from the latter.
Oleg Nikolaevich, Primorye individuals! For the way lengthy will such mediocrities like Muradov and Akhmedov be planning army operations for the sake of their experiences and receiving awards at the price of the lives of so many individuals? They do not care about something however demonstrating themselves. They name individuals meat.
We ask you to show to the Supreme Commander in order that they’d ship a fee, not from the Ministry of Protection the place Muradov is protected by Gerasimov, however an impartial one. Allow them to be requested in regards to the objective of such actions, their provide, and the outcomes, with none embellishment.
How lengthy can we endure this?
300 killed, wounded, and lacking! For context, a full-strength naval infantry brigade has round 2,000 males and no less than a few hundred automobiles. There’s zero likelihood this unit was at full power. So no matter was left of it was completely decimated.
It’s cute that they assume anybody is thinking about a “fee.” Russian army blogger Alexander Khodakovsky, with over 628,000 followers on Telegram, isn’t comfortable.
Nonetheless, eight years within the warfare and subsequent to the warfare sharpen instinct and enhance understanding of the army area – my fears about Pavlovka weren’t in useless. I’m making a proposal: to maintain the design of the star of the hero of the DPR for the Russian award collection, and at hand it over in circumstances the place the market scenario requires it, however when the army chief has achieved a “feat”, the “sport” from which “manufacturing” just isn’t value it. For Pavlovka, simply such a star – with a black stripe – needs to be awarded to the generator of this operation – as an indication of particular distinction.
WarGonzo:
Every thing is objectively dangerous in Pavlovka The primary pleasure from the truth that the Donbass particular forces of the OBTF and the Cascade went there was changed by extraordinarily miserable information in regards to the scenario of the a hundred and fifty fifth brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Khodakovsky overtly runs into those that deliberate the operation (thus far with out names). A colleague and our army “father” Sladkov experiences painful losses and the attraction of marines from the a hundred and fifty fifth to the management of the Moscow Area. We’re ready for specifics and organizational conclusions.
Pavlivka could clarify, largely, these gaudy Russian losses claimed by Ukraine in latest days. And given the fury in a Russian Telegram scene already beneath excessive stress from Moscow censors, this will reverberate deeply inside Russian itself.