One main knowledgeable mentioned, nonetheless, it was uncommon and placing that the assailants had shaped and executed an escape plan as an alternative of pursuing their rampage to the purpose of being gunned down.
Islamic State, also called IS or ISIS, issued statements claiming accountability for Friday night’s assault by which Russian investigators mentioned 133 individuals had been killed, and revealed {a photograph} of the alleged gunmen.
Russia has not mentioned who it believes was behind the mass taking pictures, however has said – with out offering proof – that the perpetrators had contacts in Ukraine. It mentioned the gunmen fled by automobile and had been captured hours later close to the Ukrainian border. Ukraine, defending in opposition to Russia’s invasion since 2022, has emphatically denied any involvement.
Adam Dolnik, a Czech safety knowledgeable who has studied previous Islamist assaults in India, Kenya, Russia and elsewhere, mentioned the Islamic State declare appeared credible, though “that won’t cease the Russians from leveraging this for his or her overseas coverage agenda vis-a-vis Ukraine and the West”.
Dolnik mentioned in a phone interview that assaults by marauding gunmen had been a typical modus operandi in recent times for IS and al Qaeda.
He famous Islamic State has a file of earlier assaults in opposition to Russia, together with the bombing of a 2015 flight from the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh to St Petersburg and a 2022 assault on the Russian embassy in Kabul. Earlier this month, Russia’s FSB mentioned it foiled an assault on a Moscow synagogue by ISIS-Okay, an affiliate of the group.
“In the event you line up all these items collectively, then I believe it is fully conceivable that this is able to be an IS assault,” he mentioned.
The one component that was uncommon was that the perpetrators had made their escape, he mentioned – not like typical Islamist militant assaults the place the perpetrators go in ready to die and anticipating to be shot ultimately by safety forces.
Tunnel Imaginative and prescient
Their execution of the assault and escape confirmed a excessive diploma of planning and coordination, given gunmen in such conditions can get caught up in “tunnel imaginative and prescient” and find yourself scattered and remoted from their accomplices, Dolnik mentioned.
“In the event that they had been coordinated sufficient to really make an escape all collectively, all of sudden, that to me tells a narrative of a rather well deliberate assault and powerful coordination between the person attackers.”
Yassin Musharbash, a German journalist and safety specialist, mentioned the language, content material and channels of communication that had been used for the declare of accountability confirmed that the declare undoubtedly got here from Islamic State.
In a submit on X, he mentioned that didn’t imply it was factually true that the group carried out the assault, however that this was believable.
Previously, militant teams have been recognized to say assaults carried out by others, in the event that they match with their most well-liked targets and propaganda targets.
IS has sturdy motivation to strike Russia, which intervened in opposition to it in Syria’s civil battle in 2015 on the aspect of President Bashar al-Assad.
“ISIS-Okay has been fixated on Russia for the previous two years, steadily criticizing Putin in its propaganda,” mentioned Colin Clarke of Soufan Heart, a New York-based analysis group. The ISIS-Okay department of Islamic State sprang up in 2014 in Afghanistan.
Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Heart mentioned ISIS-Okay “sees Russia as being complicit in actions that usually oppress Muslims”.
Peter Neumann, one other German safety specialist, mentioned the declare of accountability, the modus operandi, the alleged involvement of Muslim gunmen from former Soviet Central Asia and the truth that america had warned of an impending “extremist” assault in Russia all pointed in direction of IS.
“*Conclusion* It wasn’t Putin, it wasn’t Ukraine. It was ISIS!” he posted on X.
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