WASHINGTON — High U.S. intelligence officers stated on Tuesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been stunned and unsettled by the issues which have hampered his navy in Ukraine, points that can make it tougher for Russian forces to manage the nation.
However Mr. Putin is set to reach Ukraine, and can attempt to double down and use ever extra brutal ways, the officers stated throughout an look earlier than the Home Intelligence Committee.
America’s intelligence businesses, which earlier than the assault launched info on Russia’s troop buildup and struggle plans, will work to focus on Russian atrocities and crimes, a continuation of the data struggle that helped rally the West to impose robust sanctions on Ukraine, the officers stated.
Earlier than the invasion, Mr. Putin thought the struggle could be comparatively fast, permitting him to quickly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, Avril D. Haines, the director of nationwide intelligence, instructed lawmakers.
“Moscow underestimated the energy of Ukraine’s resistance and the diploma of inner navy challenges we’re observing, which embody an ill-constructed plan, morale points and appreciable logistical points,” Ms. Haines stated.
Controlling all of Ukraine will necessitate much more forces than Russia has dedicated to the battle, she stated.
Some allied intelligence companies imagine that Mr. Putin’s early navy issues might trigger him to readjust his plans to take management of the entire nation, and cease his advance after he captures Kyiv, significantly if navy officers spotlight what number of further forces it should require to safe Ukraine.
However diplomats are additionally fast so as to add that they aren’t positive how rationally Mr. Putin is viewing the scenario. On the listening to, Ms. Haines stated Mr. Putin appeared intent on intensifying his marketing campaign, regardless of his navy’s logistical issues.
“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks,” Ms. Haines stated, “and as an alternative might escalate, primarily doubling down to realize Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality, to stop it from additional integrating with the U.S. and NATO.”
Given the issues the Russian navy has confronted, and the rising will of Ukraine to battle, intelligence officers predicted the struggle would intensify. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, is anticipating an “ugly subsequent few weeks.”
“I feel Putin is offended and annoyed proper now,” Mr. Burns stated. He’s more likely to “attempt to grind down the Ukrainian navy with no regard for civilian casualties,” he added.
Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Protection Intelligence Company, stated there was a restrict to how lengthy Kyiv might maintain on as Russian forces encircled Ukraine and tightened the vise. “With provides being reduce off, it should turn into considerably determined in, I might say, 10 days to 2 weeks,” Basic Berrier stated.
Different estimates are comparable. Some allied governments imagine Russia will end encircling Kyiv in every week and, given the energy of Ukraine’s resistance, town could possibly maintain out for one more month, a European diplomat stated on Tuesday.
Whereas the intelligence chiefs stated Mr. Putin felt aggrieved, Mr. Burns stated it could be incorrect to view his actions as loopy.
The Russian chief’s rising isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him “extraordinarily tough to cope with,” Mr. Burns stated. With out aides keen to push again, Mr. Putin entered the struggle misunderstanding the need of Ukraine to battle again and the West to take motion.
Germany, for instance, suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline mission, which might have allowed imported Russian pure gasoline to bypass Ukraine; despatched weapons on to Ukraine; and expanded its protection finances.
“He’s been unsettled by Western response and allied resolve, significantly among the selections that the German authorities has taken,” Mr. Burns stated. “I feel he’s been unsettled by the efficiency of his personal navy.”
Russia-Ukraine Battle: Key Issues to Know
Basic Berrier stated he had low confidence in experiences of Russian casualties, however put Moscow’s losses at 2,000 to 4,000.
Mr. Burns stated the American authorities was protecting an in depth eye on Mr. Putin’s home help. With state-controlled media dominating what the Russian public hears and impartial reporting on the invasion primarily being made unlawful, it should take time for Russians to “take in the implications” of Mr. Putin’s actions.
However, over time, funerals of Russian troopers killed in Ukraine will have an effect, Mr. Burns stated.
“You additionally see, in comparatively small numbers, a variety of very brave Russians out on the road protesting,” Mr. Burns stated. “One thing like 13 or 14,000 have been arrested since then, which isn’t a small factor in a deeply repressive society like Russia.”
Different governments stated one other essential issue is whether or not Mr. Putin’s help inside the navy erodes. Earlier than the invasion, Russian officers complained in regards to the plan, in response to intercepts obtained by Western intelligence. The discontent with the Kremlin’s planning now continues, the European diplomat stated.
The intelligence neighborhood will increase its info struggle with Russia, working to reveal Moscow’s struggle crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, Ms. Haines stated. American spy businesses had been working with different businesses to doc Russian actions in Ukraine, together with struggle crimes, and to carry the perpetrators accountable.
“Russian forces are on the very least working with reckless disregard for the security of noncombatants, as Russian models launch artillery and airstrikes into city areas as they’ve accomplished in cities throughout Ukraine,” Ms. Haines stated.
Such an info marketing campaign to reveal Russia’s assaults on civilians and different missteps would construct on the intelligence launched earlier than the invasion, which sought to reveal Russia’s struggle plans, rally allied help for robust monetary sanctions and deny Moscow the prospect to create a false pretext for an assault.
Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the director of the Nationwide Safety Company, stated that the US had intently tracked three or 4 Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and that strengthened Ukrainian defenses had helped blunt wider Russian cyberattacks.
“When it comes to why they haven’t accomplished extra, I feel that’s clearly among the work that the Ukrainians have accomplished, among the challenges that the Russians have encountered and among the work that others have been capable of do to stop their actions,” Basic Nakasone stated.