On Saturday morning, native time, simply earlier than daybreak when the bridge was at its emptiest, Ukraine one way or the other struck the Kerch bridge on occupied Crimea. The bridge is a key logistical strategic asset for Russia, supplying its total southern struggle effort. As I defined yesterday, it’s a legit goal below the Geneva Conventions, the principles of struggle.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin hesitated a day earlier than he introduced that, “There isn’t any doubt, that is an act of terrorism geared toward destroying Russia’s crucial civilian infrastructure.” In fact, there was loads of doubt, because the bridge is the army infrastructure of your complete southern area. And if he needed to see what an precise terrorist assaults appears to be like like, all he wanted to do was look in a mirror.
Along with putting civilian condo complexes in Kyiv final evening, it struck a busy intersection throughout rush hour visitors as to maximise civilian casualties.
[Edit: The video above is actually from Dnipro, not Kyiv.]
And for many who say that Russia is “retaliating” for the Kerch bridge assault, 1) retaliation can be hitting a bridge or rail station Ukraine makes use of to maneuver its gear, and a pair of) Russia has been hitting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure actually each single day since February 24. Even playgrounds, within the morning, when children would possibly’ve been enjoying there (thank heavens for air raid sirens).
One other missile was wasted on a pedestrian bridge in Kyiv, as a result of that was one way or the other thought of an essential goal.
This was Russia’s largest coordinated missile strike of the struggle.
The silver lining to Russia’s murderous terrorirsm, and it’s a shitty one however actual, is that each munition expended in opposition to a civilian goal is one much less munition used in opposition to the Ukrainian armed forces which might be, at this second, pushing Russia again all throughout Ukraine.
There are many causes Russia is shedding this struggle, and amongst them, the unimaginably merciless prioritization of civilian targets over army ones. Russia has a restricted variety of long-range precision-guided missiles and rockets. Utilizing up the final ones to take out playgrounds, moderately than HIMARS or different high-value targets, solely hastens the tip of the struggle.
Speeding to publish this now. I’ll replace with on-the-ground state of affairs in a bit.
All struggle I’ve been dismissing pervasive studies of Belarus becoming a member of the struggle. So what to make of this?
It might be weird for Lukashenko to enter the struggle now, when all is misplaced. we’ve additionally seen historic Belorussian tanks headed east, to Russia. So even when Belarus enters the struggle, doesn’t appear like they’d be opening up a brand new entrance on their border with Ukraine. It’s all very bizarre, really. Lukashenko has achieved an amazing job maintaining Putin ready, what would’ve modified now?
I’m nonetheless guessing Belarus does not previously enter the struggle. Lukashenko’s standing within the nation stays precarious, and we’ve seen repeated indicators his military had zero curiosity in partaking. If you happen to thought Russia’s military was a paper tiger, Belorussia’s might be even worse. However for the primary time, there’s an actual likelihood it might occur, even when on this restricted “joint regional group” format, no matter which means.
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The Rybar in English Twitter account helpfully interprets dispatches from the pro-Russian Rybar Telegram. They’re celebrating their terrorism:
They actually assume mass homicide will decrease Ukraine’s will to combat, studying nothing from the Battles of Britain, Stalingrad, Dresden, and different efforts to interrupt a inhabitants’s might be destroying civilian infrastructure.
Rybar on the Belarus information.
They don’t assume territorial protection can deal with this new grouping, which is a bizarre declaration on condition that we have now no info on what these forces are. The border with Belarus doesn’t look now prefer it did in February 24. It’s now effectively fortified, and defended with battle-hardened Territorial Protection Forces. Ukraine has much better artillery belongings than it did when the struggle begun. And if this transfer was really meant to place strain on Ukraine’s northern border and “repair” army belongings in place, decrepit Belorussian tanks wouldn’t be seen shipped in the direction of Russia. Humorous sufficient, this dispatch makes me assume the announcement is pure bullshit, trying to scare Ukraine into transferring reserves to their northern border. I’m again on the “not gonna occur” prepare.
I used to be going to replace the bottom state of affairs, however the fog of struggle is thick. There are purported Ukrainian advances in each the Luhansk (previously Kharkiv) route, as effectively Kherson. However I can’t get a grasp of what’s actual, what’s rumor, and what’s wishful considering. I’m going to see if we get extra readability by this night and both replace this put up, or write one thing new (if warranted). After a comparatively quiet week (as Ukrainian forces rotated out, rested, refitted, and resupplied), the depth of the preventing is certainly amping up.
A grasp class on Excalibur precision-guided artillery shells:
Every Excalibur spherical prices round $100,000, however no have to spray and pray. Almost every spherical is cash. And if you happen to surprise if it’s value spending a $100,000 spherical on a provide truck, observe Russia’s largest legal responsibility is logistics. Each the automobile, the drivers, and the cargo are treasured to Russia (particularly ones supplying artillery, which is what we see on this video, together with their GRAD rocket launchers). Every loss is a success on their skill to wage struggle. Because of this, Russia has misplaced the flexibility to go on the offensive. Now, their skill to defend is being degraded.
Good thread by retired Gen. Mark Hertling on the impossibility of stopping Russia’s terrorist missile assaults.
Learn the total thread for the total rationalization.
This man has an fascinating concept. Russia has been utilizing thermite munitions in its assaults on villages on the Donbas entrance. He buys into the truck bomb concept and sees proof that Ukraine used captured thermite munitions in its bomb, therefore the sparkly metallic burning we see in movies of the explosion. These would unfold the harm, and would’ve been the explanation the gasoline prepare caught hearth.
After an eruption of much more scandals amongst Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to debate the impact these types of scandals can have on aggressive races; whether or not Democrats stand an opportunity to maintain the Home; and the other ways pollsters create probably voter fashions.
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kos
Do the mathematics in that thread, and appears like essentially the most Belarus might mobilize, if it selected to take action (and so they haven’t), can be 40,000 males. As of now, they’ve round 20,000, none effectively educated, and sporting historic Soviet gear.
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kos
I spoke of this above.
This cargo of shit outdated gear to Russia is totally incompatible with the notion that Russia and Belarus are opening a brand new entrance in northern Ukraine.