By Susan Crabtree for RealClearPolitics
Ryan Guillen had been a Democratic member of the Texas legislature, representing a sprawling district south of San Antonio, for practically twenty years. This week he jumped ship for the Republican Occasion, blaming Democrats for leaving him, not the opposite approach round.
Usually such a transfer would make native and state information, however definitely not prime-time nationwide protection. But, on Wednesday evening, Fox Information’ Laura Ingraham gleefully cited the defection as additional proof that “actually sensible” Democrats are abandoning a sinking ship.
Whereas Guillen is a state lawmaker whose change gained’t impression which social gathering holds energy in Washington, there’s one signal that this might not be an remoted instance: At the least 9 congressional Home Democrats have introduced they don’t seem to be looking for reelection subsequent yr. Extra are anticipated to comply with.
Highlighting the shifting political terrain in South Texas isn’t only a partisan train. The New York Occasions’ Tom Edsall this week cited proof that President Biden’s immigration document and Democrats’ progressive agenda is hurting them with traditional-base voters, particularly Hispanics in Texas border counties.
“Democrats shouldn’t panic,” Edsall wrote. “They need to go into shock.”
Explaining his change to the GOP, Guillen supplied extra fodder for veteran marketing campaign marketing consultant James Carville and others warning Democrats to rein of their left wing. The 44-year-old anti-abortion and pro-gun lawmaker cited the defund-the-police push and the local weather change motion, which he mentioned is “destroying” the Lone Star state’s oil and fuel business, together with the “chaos on the border.”
“Pals, one thing is occurring in South Texas, and many people are waking as much as the truth that the values of these in Washington, D.C., aren’t our values, not the values of most Texans,” he mentioned at a press convention Monday with Gov. Greg Abbott and Home Speaker Dade Phelan, each Republicans.
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Democrats rapidly identified that Guillen made the change solely after the GOP-led redistricting course of turned his already Republican-leaning district scarlet. Texas is the one state to realize two congressional seats after the 2020 census, and Republicans management the state legislature and governor’s mansion, and thus the redistricting course of.
But Guillen wasn’t exaggerating when he mentioned there’s a big political sea change happening in South Texas. His transfer was the most recent signal of a rightward shift within the Rio Grande area lately. Donald Trump gained Guillen’s district by 13 proportion factors in 2020; simply 4 years earlier, Hillary Clinton carried it by the identical margin.
The voters nonetheless selected Guillen by 17 factors final yr, however the brand new map may have threatened such margins for him sooner or later. The newly fashioned district voted for Trump by 25 factors.
Republicans are closely concentrating on three South Texas congressional seats held by Democrats and are inspired by Guillen’s change and different indicators of GOP inroads in historically extra liberal areas of the state. That trio of districts voted for Joe Biden by simply two to 4 proportion factors in 2020, down from the 17-to-22-point margins Clinton garnered in 2016.
The primary indicators of Democratic vulnerability in districts alongside the U.S.-Mexico border got here earlier this yr when Rep. Filemon Vela, who represents Texas’ thirty fourth Congressional District, introduced his retirement.
Then, in June, the historically Democratic border metropolis of McAllen elected a Republican mayor in Javier Villalobos, a former Hidalgo County GOP chairman. (The county had gone for Biden by 17 proportion factors over Trump.)
One other warning for Democrats got here a number of weeks in the past when Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez introduced he would run within the adjoining thirty fourth district as a result of he not felt assured about holding onto Texas’ fifteenth. Gonzalez gained the fifteenth by practically 20 proportion factors in 2016 however by simply 2.9 factors final yr.
Gonzalez publicly claimed he didn’t have a lot of a alternative after Republicans made his district redder, however the Texas Tribune reported the choice was extra deliberate than Gonzalez let on. A Democratic modification to the redistricting course of moved his residence into the thirty fourth district.
In early November, Republicans additionally picked up a further Democratic-friendly state Home seat in San Antonio, an space the place Biden gained comfortably however nonetheless underperformed expectations final yr.
After Guillen’s leap to the GOP this week, liberal teams assailed aggressive GOP redistricting ways as a primary motivating issue. Frequent Trigger, a liberal nonprofit that advocates for simpler voting entry, accused Texas Republicans of “whitewashing” state legislative and congressional districts to dilute the ability of minority voters.
Anthony Gutierrez, who heads Frequent Trigger’s Texas workplace, mentioned Republicans revealed the brand new maps simply three days earlier than a scheduled vote on them, “offering virtually no time for folks to evaluate the maps or go discuss to impacted communities.”
Democrats at the moment are combating the redrawn districts in court docket. Eric Holder, who served as legal professional common within the Obama administration, now chairs the Nationwide Democratic Redistricting Committee. The committee filed a swimsuit arguing the brand new congressional districts strains violate Voting Rights Act protections for minority populations and are gerrymandered to present Republicans a bonus.
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It’s a well-recognized chorus. In most states, the ability to create new congressional maps lies with the state legislature after the decennial U.S. Census, and the bulk social gathering in energy usually makes an attempt to redraw them to learn their members.
However election specialists counter that Democrats are attempting offset Republican redistricting good points in Texas and Florida in areas the place they management the state legislatures, similar to California, New York and Illinois. In these states and in most areas throughout the nation, closely Democratic city areas are rising whereas rural GOP areas are dropping inhabitants.
The stakes this yr are notably excessive with Republicans solely needing to realize 5 seats in 2022 to win management of the Home. Republicans are hoping the trail to regaining the bulk runs by South Texas they usually level to Guillen’s resolution to change events as the most recent unhealthy omen for Democrats.
“Texas Democrats are retiring or changing into Republicans as a result of they know they’re doomed in in 2022,” mentioned Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee.
The Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee didn’t reply to a request for remark.
It’s not shocking that Biden’s plummeting ballot numbers are worse in Texas than they’re nationally. A latest College of Texas and Texas Tribune survey, launched Nov. 8, discovered solely 35% of Texans approve of the way in which Biden is dealing with his job whereas 55% of voters disapprove.
The survey confirmed that Texas voters, greater than a 3rd of whom are Hispanic, rank Biden the bottom on his dealing with of immigration and border safety with solely 22% of respondents saying they approve of his document on that situation and 63% saying they disapprove.
Democrats are hoping to bolster Biden’s sinking reputation by pushing by an enormous $1.85 trillion local weather and social spending invoice often called Construct Again Higher. Final month, Biden warned Democrats that their “Home and Senate majorities and my presidency” will likely be decided “by what occurs” to the most recent model of the measure.
“I don’t assume it’s hyperbole,” he mentioned, referring to polls indicating most of the particular person provisions are in style with voters.
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The laws, which White Home Chief of Workers Ron Klain has described as “twice as huge in actual {dollars} because the New Deal,” would supply free preschool for all kids, increase the kid tax credit score and bolster liberals’ inexperienced agenda with quite a few shopper rebates and tax credit for clear vitality investments.
To assist pay for the spending bundle, Democrats are proposing to extend taxes on rich Individuals and companies, together with new taxes on oil and fuel producers. It’s a controversial transfer in Texas, even amongst some Democrats. At the least 620,000 jobs are linked to the oil and fuel business throughout the state, and oil manufacturing in South Texas has helped rework the comparatively poor area right into a increase space over the previous decade.
The plan would penalize oil and fuel corporations for leaks of methane from wellheads, pipelines, storage and different amenities to the tune of $1 billion to $10 billion yearly. Proponents say the tax would function incentive for corporations to cease leaks and keep away from losing methane, a potent greenhouse fuel.
Vela and Gonzalez, who based the Home Oil and Fuel Caucus, in addition to Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, despatched a letter to Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer in late September asking them to not embrace the methane tax. One other controversial piece of the Home model of the invoice would permit unlawful immigrants to acquire youngster tax credit.
The ultimate Home model of the Construct Again Higher invoice, which the Home may vote on as quickly as Friday, nonetheless contains these two provisions. Regardless of this, Gonzalez and Cuellar have signaled they may vote in favor of it, a degree Republicans will inevitably hammer residence in adverts to voters for months to return.
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White Home/nationwide political correspondent.
Syndicated with permission from RealClearWire.
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