The election outcomes are clear. Now, the U.S. must ship a powerful sign {that a} navy coup is not going to be tolerated.
Xiomara Castro and Salvador Nasralla, Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates rejoice after preliminary outcomes confirmed them successful. (Seth Sidney Berry / Sipa by way of AP Photographs)
Right here’s an inspiring calculation that exhibits simply how a lot Hondurans wished to revive democracy within the November 28 election: Reporter Jeff Ernst confirmed that the previous regime was paying $300 per vote, utilizing a conflict chest of a minimum of $126 million. Trendy know-how facilitates vote shopping for; you’re taking a cellphone photograph of your poll earlier than casting it, to ensure that you’ll get the fee later. Honduras is the second-poorest nation within the Americas. For those who examine per capita incomes, that $300 fee is the equal of giving an American voter $4,000. (The regime’s $126 million may have purchased greater than 300,000 votes.) However many hundreds of Hondurans should have turned down the cash, as a result of the prodemocracy motion simply received a smashing, landslide victory.
With 53 p.c of the votes counted, Xiomara Castro and her five-party coalition have an insurmountable lead. (Her first identify is pronounced show-MAR-a.) Castro has 53 p.c, comfortably forward of the regime candidate, Nasry Asfura, at 34 p.c. Her coalition led in 17 of the nation’s 18 departments. The electoral verdict is a decisive repudiation of the outgoing president, Juan Orlando Hernández, who had hoped to rig the election for Asfura and preserve management from behind the scenes.
The outcomes can be some aid to the Biden administration, whose coverage to deal with the surges of refugees on the southern border is failing. One out of each 5 migrants that the U.S. Border Patrol “encountered” in fiscal yr 2021 had been from Honduras. Now, many extra hundreds of Hondurans who would have fled northward if the previous regime had rigged the election will give their nation one other probability. Interviews on Election Day confirmed that folks deliberate to pack their suitcases if fraud had succeeded.
The prodemocracy victory must also calm frazzled nerves on the U.S. State Division. American coverage since 2009 has been a catastrophe, as America seemed the opposite method whereas a corrupt, violent regime consolidated its management. The ultimate failure got here when President Hernández was implicated in a large drug smuggling case in a New York federal courtroom. This previous March, Hernández’s brother, Tony, was convicted of trafficking and sentenced to life in jail. U.S. coverage makers shuddered on the prospect that the president himself can be indicted the day after he left workplace.
The triumph of democracy in Honduras will not be being adequately reported within the mainstream American press. If an identical mass motion had received in jap Europe, or in Venezuela, there would have been wall-to-wall protection. As an alternative, the American media barely seen till the final minute. Particularly, New York Instances studies had been biased. The correspondent Anatoly Kurmanaev didn’t hassle to fly down from Mexico Metropolis to cowl the election—and he downplayed the prodemocracy angle. Somewhat, he echoed right-wing Latin American speaking factors, insinuating that Xiomara Castro’s victory is the second coming of Hugo Chávez, and that she has “formidable socialist proposals.”
Actually, the prodemocracy coalition’s program is cautious and cautious. Dana Frank, a former historical past professor on the College of California at Santa Cruz, and a number one Honduras skilled, instructed me that Castro is a centrist, who can be a average Democrat in america. Frank defined that below the Hernández regime, primary social providers have weakened and even collapsed. “This new authorities must rebuild public training, well being care, create some sort of security web, perform some modicum of poverty discount,” she mentioned. She added that an excellent larger precedence is to begin “restoring the function of regulation,” which has been undermined by corruption and gang violence.
President-elect Castro additionally needs to arrange an unbiased, highly effective anti-corruption company, with help from the United Nations. The same fee in neighboring Guatemala led to the prosecution of dozens of officers, together with a former president, till it was closed down after 12 years.
What’s extra, the Castro authorities can be no risk to america. The key American curiosity in Honduras is the massive U.S. navy base at Soto Cano, which has between 500 and 1,500 troops stationed there at anyone time. The prodemocracy coalition didn’t name for the bottom to be closed and even shrunk.
Honduran fears that the election can be stolen weren’t paranoia. In 2017, a distinct prodemocracy candidate was main on Election Night time, till the pc system “failed.” Two days later, Hernández had by some means eked out a slender victory. Hondurans poured into the streets to protest, however the navy and police opened hearth, killing greater than 20 individuals. The U.S., shamefully, accepted the outcomes.
This time round, the prodemocracy voters bravely confirmed up on the polling locations, regardless of the potential for extra regime violence; turnout rose from 57 to 69 p.c. The landslide was so large that the Election Day fears had been shortly changed by enthusiasm and nationwide celebration that night.
The happiness in Honduras was captured in a catchy music video that went viral on YouTube. The merengue tune is known as “Juanchi Va Pa Nueva York” (Juanchi Is Going to New York). “Juanchi” is a nickname for outgoing President Hernández, and the lyrics mock him as a result of he might be indicted for drug trafficking and extradited to face trial. The lyrics embody:
The gringos are ready for him,
Juanchi, you’re trapped,
And Honduras is celebrating with an enormous fiesta.
You transformed my nation right into a narco state.
However democracy in Honduras stays fragile. At a gathering of the Senate Overseas Relations Committee, Senator Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, reminded the State Division that Honduras has suffered navy coups up to now. Merkley, who has vigorously criticized U.S. coverage, mentioned, “America has to ship a strong message that no navy coup can be tolerated. The facility elites are deeply entrenched. Nobody ought to underestimate how tough it’s when corruption permeates each stage of authority within the nation.”