All eyes stay on Russia as America’s army chief hosts his Lithuanian counterpart on the Pentagon as we speak. U.S. Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin is slated to welcome Protection Minister Dr. Arvydas Anušauskas, who’s been in his publish for precisely a 12 months now, early this afternoon round 1 p.m. ET.
By the way in which, Anušauskas is an achieved historian who has revealed a e-book about “The Anti-soviet Resistance within the Baltic States.”
FWIW: Lithuania was as soon as a part of the most important and arguably one of the tolerant republics in Europe—referred to as the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea—for greater than 200 years, ending in 1795. Throughout this time, its kings have been elected, and the republic codified simply the second structure in trendy historical past, behind the U.S., in 1791. At its finest, “When the system labored nicely, the Commonwealth was a powerhouse,” the BBC remembered in a latest episode of “In Our Time.” Nonetheless, “Its neighbours exploited its parliament’s want for unanimity, although, and this contributed to its downfall.” Take heed to the remainder of that historical past, right here.
Lithuania’s prime diplomat has a daring prediction about Russia as we speak: “We’re satisfied that Russia is definitely making ready for all-out warfare towards Ukraine,” International Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated Monday in Brussels. “If it’s an unprecedented assault,” he continued, “that signifies that the reply must be unprecedented from the Western international locations, as nicely.”
Landsbergis is joined by different EU overseas ministers discussing potential new sanctions towards Russia for renewed aggression in Ukraine, in response to Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.
On the desk for the EU: Potential “Measures towards the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany to forestall it from changing into operational…in addition to concentrating on extra Russian state-owned protection and vitality corporations or canceling natural-gas contracts,” RFE/RL stories. Learn on, right here.
New: Ukraine needs missile protection programs from Santa this 12 months. And if it could possibly get them earlier than Christmas, then that’s even higher, Kyiv’s Protection Minister Oleksii Reznikov told Politico’s Paul McCleary over the weekend. That might embody the Iron Dome system, or Patriot launchers. “We have to cowl our nuclear energy stations. We have to cowl our airports. We have to cowl our capital,” Reznikov stated.
Associated studying: “Regardless of appeals from Ukraine, Biden admin holds again further army help to Kyiv amid diplomatic push,” by way of NBC Information, reporting Friday. Protection continues under the fold.
From Protection One
Finland Chooses F-35 Over Tremendous Hornet, 3 European Fighters // Marcus Weisgerber: It’s the second win this 12 months for the F-35 in a European fighter competitors.
Protection One Radio, Ep. 93: Outlook 2022 // Protection One Employees : We proceed our look-ahead to subsequent 12 months, that includes interviews with White Home Nationwide Safety Advisor Jake Sullivan, Air Drive Secretary Frank Kendall, and extra.
Protection Enterprise Transient // Marcus Weisgerber: Protection Enterprise Transient: Tremendous Hornet loses once more; Vax mandate, blocked; Uncommon earth plans; and extra…
Putin Is Taking a Enormous Gamble // Thomas Wright, The Atlantic: His determination to assemble an invasion pressure alongside Russia’s border with Ukraine means that we’re about to enter a harmful new section of worldwide relations.
Diplomacy Alone Can’t Save Democracy // Yasmeen Serhan, The Atlantic: Home actors, not world summits, drive democratization.
Nuclear Command-and-Management Satellites Ought to Be Off Limits // James Acton and Thomas MacDonald: Blowing up some satellites causes issues. Blowing up these might trigger nuclear warfare.
Welcome to this Monday version of The D Transient from Ben Watson with Jennifer Hlad. When you’re not already subscribed to The D Transient, you are able to do that right here. On today in 2002, the 15-member European Union introduced that it will quickly broaden to incorporate 10 extra nations—Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
New D.C. suppose tank report on Russia’s ways: Autocrat Vladimir Putin “might don’t have any intention of invading Ukraine in any respect,” 5 analysts on the Institute for the Examine of Conflict write partially one in every of a brand new report on latest developments in Jap Europe. As a substitute of an invasion, “Putin could also be trying a strategic misdirection that impales the West in a diplomatic course of and army planning cycle that may hold it unprepared to satisfy his most popular, wily, and extra refined subsequent transfer.”
Whereas the U.S. and allies scramble “to defuse and de-escalate this disaster that he invented,” the authors warn partially two, “Putin is more likely to ship Russian forces into Belarus and presumably overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas.”
However a “full-scale Russian invasion of unoccupied Ukraine”? That “can be by far the most important, boldest, and riskiest army operation Moscow has launched for the reason that 1979 invasion of Afghanistan,” ISW warns. Such an operation would additionally “be much more advanced than the US wars towards Iraq in 1991 or 2003,” the authors add, and name such hypothetical “a marked departure from the approaches Putin has relied on since 2015, and a significant step-change in his willingness to make use of Russian typical army energy overtly.”
For the months forward, observers can anticipate “oscillations within the coverage discourse between a deal with the de-escalation negotiations and Putin’s army actions and escalatory rhetoric exterior that course of.” It’s because Putin appears to be “setting circumstances for a future through which he has moved forces into Belarus and overtly into occupied Donbas however has not invaded unoccupied Ukraine, and through which the West is so relieved by the latter that it merely accepts the previous.” There’s way more the place all of that comes from, starting with half one in every of ISW’s evaluation right here.
One large concept: “America ought to think about an out-of-cycle, division-level army deployment to Jap Europe to reassure allies and bolster the defenses of the North Atlantic Treaty Group,” retired Military Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman wrote late final week within the op-ed pages of the New York Instances. “This sort of deployment would sign that Russia’s aggression will consequence within the form of NATO safety posture Russia most needs to keep away from.”
His larger level: “Putin wants Ukraine to be a failed state,” Vindman writes. However “U.S. assist for Ukraine might additionally assist drive a wedge between China and Russia. Stopping Mr. Putin from invading Ukraine demonstrates the power of the West’s dedication to opposing autocracy and makes Russia a much less potent associate to China of their mutual efforts to undermine the Western rules-based worldwide order.” Learn on, right here.
One final thing: The predicted takes evaluating late 2021 to 1938? They’re already right here. POTUS43 speechwriter Marc Thiessen of the American Enterprise Institute gives the most recent such take by way of the Washington Publish, right here.
After winding down its counter-ISIS warfare in Iraq, the U.S.-led coalition is popping to Africa with a brand new “focus group” (not that form of focus group) monitoring terrorism traits throughout the continent. Stars and Stripes’ Chad Garland has a bit extra, right here.
ICYMI: “Civilian Deaths Mounted as Secret Unit Pounded ISIS,” the New York Instances reported Sunday, extending their work on the final days of the U.S. army’s giant operations towards ISIS leaders inside Syria.
And lastly as we speak, D.C.-area refugee businesses are overwhelmed by the hundreds of Afghan refugees who’ve flooded into the D.C. space after the autumn of Kabul. It’s partly as a result of, in fact, nobody precisely predicted the velocity of Kabul’s fall. However it’s additionally as a result of these businesses had seen cuts in funding and personnel—in addition to traditionally low numbers of refugees—throughout the Trump administration, in response to the Washington Publish, reporting Sunday. For instance, earlier than the evacuation from Kabul, one native group “had the staffing degree to serve 500 individuals a 12 months.” However “For the reason that historic airlift out of Kabul in August, greater than 3,700 Afghan evacuees have been resettled within the District, Maryland and Virginia.” Learn on, right here.