Vietnam’s prime chief Nguyen Phu Trong will journey to China on Sunday to go to President Xi Jinping, the primary overseas chief to take action since Xi’s re-election to a 3rd five-year time period final weekend.
The 2 international locations have had territorial disagreements within the South China Sea however are typically thought of allies. The 2 males are anticipated to debate strengthening ties and underscore their will to cooperate on a wide range of points.
The three-day go to may also be Trong’s first journey overseas since he suffered a stroke in 2019.
Xi’s re-election final Sunday on the Chinese language Communist Celebration’s nationwide congress indicators that there can be little change in China’s overseas coverage, and it is a chance for Vietnam to reaffirm that it has no intention to counter China by allying with a 3rd nation, corresponding to america, Vu Xuan Khang, an Worldwide Safety Ph.D. candidate at Boston School, informed RFA’s Vietnamese Service.
“Regardless of territorial disagreement within the [South China] Sea, the Communist Celebration of Vietnam attaches significance to its comradeship with the Communist Celebration of China and hopes that the 2 sides can keep their good relationship sooner or later,” mentioned Khang.
China, in the meantime, prolonged the invitation to verify the Asian neighbors proceed their dialogue and keep away from pointless misunderstandings, Khang mentioned.
“China doesn’t wish to have conflicts with Vietnam because the Taiwan challenge is far more essential,” he mentioned.
China might use the assembly to attract Vietnam nearer and deter Hanoi from getting too near Washington, Nguyen The Phuong, a marine safety professional, informed RFA.
Vietnam wants China greater than China wants Vietnam, particularly on the subject of financial points, mentioned Phoung. However he mentioned Xi selected Trong to be the primary chief to go to for the reason that finish of the congress as a gesture to point out that China does worth the connection.
“Not too long ago, Vietnam’s relations with western international locations, particularly with the U.S., have improved quickly,” he mentioned. “From China’s perspective, letting Vietnam freely get nearer to western international locations can be a strategic menace.”
Beijing has a number of instruments at its disposal to forestall Hanoi from falling into Washington’s orbit, Phoung mentioned.
“Economically, Vietnam’s import-export actions closely rely on China, particularly when it comes to uncooked materials imports and border commerce,” he mentioned. “Subsequently, by creating financial stress solely, China would already be capable to ship the message that Vietnam mustn’t go too far.”
Moreover, China would be capable to put stress on Vietnam by growing army presence within the South China Sea. It may well additionally persuade the Vietnamese Communist Celebration {that a} nearer relationship will help keep the get together’s energy, Phoung mentioned.
Ironing out disagreements
The 2 international locations have additionally tangled over the Mekong River, as China has constructed a collection of dams within the Higher Mekong which have adversely affected Vietnam and different downstream international locations in Southeast Asia. However the go to will probably search to keep away from any overt conflicts as the 2 sides attempt to easy over relations, a researcher who requested anonymity for security causes informed RFA
“Vietnam will maybe not point out the Mekong very a lot. Nevertheless, it’ll attempt to put forth the Jap Sea points to resolve variations via negotiation by the 2 international locations,” he mentioned, utilizing the Vietnamese time period for the South China Sea.
Phuong mentioned these points can be secondary to sustaining their harmonious relationship.
“If talked about in any respect, the 2 sides would nonetheless emphasize dialogue and cooperation and never promote a picture of insurmountable challenges in Vietnam-China relations,” mentioned Khang.
As a substitute, the 2 sides will probably play up methods for constructing the get together and combating corruption. They could have variations in overseas coverage, “however the two international locations have many issues in frequent on the subject of home coverage,” he mentioned.
These commonalities embody the mechanism of get together management, state administration, a socialism-oriented market financial system, and financial improvement primarily based on export and overseas funding, Khang mentioned.
Translated by Anna Vu. Written in English by Eugene Whong.