Till the shock defection of Tory MP Dan Poulter to Labour, Rishi Sunak had loved that rarest of issues: a very good week.
Over the previous seven days, the prime minister has seen his flagship, long-delayed Security of Rwanda Invoice make it onto the statute books.
The bullish PM mentioned that may see deportation flights to Africa lastly get off the bottom within the subsequent 10 to 12 weeks and, in the end, present sufficient of a deterrent to “cease the boats” carrying migrants throughout the Channel from France.
Throw in a profitable journey to Europe, throughout which he introduced that the federal government will spend 2.5% of gross home product (GDP) on defence by 2030 and it’s straightforward to see why Sunak could be feeling fairly happy with himself.
Poulter’s resolution to cross the ground dramatically punctured Sunak’s bubble on Saturday night time – and teed up one more nightmare week for the embattled PM.
On Thursday, voters throughout England will go to the polls to elect round 2,600 councillors, in addition to mayors in Manchester, Liverpool, Tees Valley, and the West and East Midlands.
Bar some attainable exceptions, the outcomes is not going to be fairly for the Conservatives.
The occasion is anticipated to lose something as much as 500 seats – round half the quantity they’re defending.
Throw within the risk that high-profile Tory mayors Ben Houchen and Andy Avenue may additionally fall and it’s clear why officers at Conservative Central Headquarters are bracing themselves for disaster.
The extent of the Tory meltdown will go a protracted method to figuring out when the overall election will happen – and even whether or not Sunak will nonetheless be main the occasion when it comes round.
Conservative peer and polling professional Lord Hayward predicted “a foul night time” for his occasion, during which they may lose at the least 400 seats.
That’s marginally extra optimistic than Sky Information pollsters Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who say 500 Tory councillors are on target to lose their seats.
Both approach, the outcomes will pile but extra stress on a first-rate minister who has failed to enhance his occasion’s fortunes since changing into chief in October 2022.
A lot will hinge on the destiny of Houchen in Tees Valley and Avenue within the West Midlands. Each contests look like on a knife-edge.
Have been they each to hold on, Sunak may at the least level to some high-profile successes on an in any other case grim night time.
But when they lose – and Labour insiders are sounding more and more assured in Tees Valley – then there’s a actual risk of Tory MPs coming into a tailspin which may even see Sunak faraway from workplace.
One Conservative aide instructed HuffPost UK: “If we lose these mayors then he’s in critical trouble.”
Tory MPs have to submit 52 letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers, to set off a poll.
Get together sources consider the anti-Sunak faction stay at the least 20 in need of the magic quantity, however a flurry might be despatched in ought to subsequent Thursday go significantly badly.
The continued uncertainty across the PM’s place has achieved nothing to dampen hypothesis {that a} summer season election in on the playing cards, with wild rumours that one might be referred to as as quickly as Monday.
The logic behind such a transfer is that it could head off any makes an attempt to unseat him within the wake of the native elections.
Intriguingly, Sunak refused as soon as once more this week to rule out going to the nation in July – a date which which might meet his “working assumption” that the election will happen within the second half of the yr.
One Tory adviser mentioned: “Election preparations have actually ramped up in No.10 within the final couple of weeks. They need submissions despatched in for the manifesto to allow them to get it achieved as quickly as attainable.
“My hunch is that they wish to at the least give themselves the choice of holding it at the beginning of July.”
However former Brexit secretary David Davis spoke for a lot of of his colleagues this week when he mentioned the federal government can be “off its head” to name an election now.
“It’s going to go distant, someday in November, perhaps even December to permit a few of the financial enhancements to return via,” he instructed Occasions Radio. “So no, it could be a suicidal factor to do in political phrases.”
Whether or not will probably be Sunak’s option to make stays to be seen, nevertheless. Some Tory MPs envisage a state of affairs – albeit one which stays extremely unlikely – during which he loses a confidence vote, a brand new chief is elected following an expedited contest and an election takes place in the summertime or autumn.
No matter occurs, Sunak’s time in Downing Avenue is operating out. He ought to benefit from the good days whereas he can, as a result of there received’t be many extra of them.