What number of U.S. troops are in Afghanistan, and what’s their mission?
There are at the moment 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, together with 6,346 U.S. contractors [PDF]. U.S. drive ranges peaked at 100,000 in 2011. Underneath a withdrawal settlement [PDF] signed by the Donald J. Trump administration and the Taliban in February 2020, there ought to be no U.S. troops left in Afghanistan by Might 1.
A few of the remaining U.S. troops conduct Particular Operations missions with Afghan companion forces towards worldwide terrorist organizations together with al-Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The remainder prepare, advise, and help Afghan safety forces as a part of the North Atlantic Treaty Group’s (NATO) Operation Resolute Help. For the primary time ever, there are extra allied troops in Afghanistan (about eight thousand) than U.S. forces there. Whereas small in quantity, U.S. personnel nonetheless present necessary features, together with intelligence and air assist for Afghan forces. The US additionally offers Afghanistan with a important $4.8 billion in help per 12 months, which funds 80 p.c [PDF] of the Afghan authorities’s safety expenditures.
What has the Biden administration stated in regards to the Might deadline?
On Jan. 28, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby stated that “the Taliban have not met their commitments,” casting doubt on whether or not U.S. forces will exit by Might 1. No last resolution has been made.
In accordance with the U.S.-Taliban settlement, a whole U.S. withdrawal is conditional on the Taliban’s break with worldwide terrorist organizations, akin to al-Qaeda, and on its prevention of actions on Afghan soil that “threaten the safety of america and its allies.” The Afghanistan Examine Group, a blue-ribbon panel appointed by the U.S. Institute of Peace, stated in a brand new report that the Taliban additionally promised U.S. negotiators that it might not assault “worldwide forces, giant Afghan cities, and another targets.”
Nevertheless, the Taliban has not disavowed al-Qaeda; certainly, the United Nations stories that relations between the 2 are as shut as ever. And though the Taliban has kept away from attacking U.S. forces, it has escalated assaults towards Afghan safety forces and civilians.
What are President Biden’s choices?
Biden has three choices:
- Withdraw U.S. forces as scheduled by Might 1;
- Cite Taliban violations as justification for pulling out of the accord and sustaining an indefinite U.S. army presence; or,
- Ask the Taliban for an extension of the withdrawal deadline, citing the Taliban’s violations and delays in peace talks between the militant group and the Afghan authorities.
What’s he prone to do?
The Afghanistan Examine Group, co-chaired by retired common Joseph F. Dunford, Jr., a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees, summed up the dangers properly: “On the one hand, the Taliban have signaled publicly that if all worldwide forces usually are not withdrawn by Might 2021, as envisioned within the Doha settlement, they are going to resume their ‘jihad’ towards the international presence and can withdraw from the peace course of. Then again, a withdrawal in Might underneath present situations will possible result in a collapse of the Afghan state and a doable renewed civil battle.” The research group warns that “a precipitous withdrawal may result in a reconstitution of the terrorist menace to the U.S. homeland inside eighteen months to a few years.”
Given the dangers of choices one and two, Biden is prone to go for quantity three: making an attempt to win Taliban assist for extending the withdrawal deadline whereas intra-Afghan peace talks proceed. The Biden administration is prone to ask different international locations, together with China, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, to stress the Taliban into amending the settlement.
If the Taliban doesn’t comply with an extension (the percentages are that it received’t), the Biden administration might be left with the unpalatable decisions of pulling out anyway—risking a collapse of the Afghan state—or remaining embroiled within the “eternally battle.” The administration is prone to keep not less than 2,500 troops whereas insisting that america is dedicated to withdrawal and helps the peace course of. (The Afghanistan Examine Group recommends growing that variety of troops to 4,500.) The Taliban is prone to name this a betrayal of the settlement and reply by concentrating on U.S. and different worldwide forces to attempt to increase public stress within the West for his or her removing. But when the Taliban fails to attain its objectives by way of these ways, it may ultimately return to the negotiating desk.
This piece, first revealed by the Council on Overseas Relations, is used with permission.