Robert F Kennedy Jr, scion of essentially the most well-known United States political dynasty, will announce his working mate on Tuesday as he competes as an unbiased candidate within the 2024 US presidential election.
The chances are stacked in opposition to him as no third-party candidate has gained the presidency in additional than a century and a half.
However the longtime environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist has been capable of create a media buzz, due to his robust model recognition: His uncle was former President John F Kennedy, and his father was Robert F Kennedy, a former US lawyer basic and senator.
He ditched the Democratic Get together after failing to safe its presidential nomination and is enjoying to each far-left and far-right parts in his long-shot bid for the White Home.
His marketing campaign seems to be resonating amongst so-called double haters, who dread the prospect of a rematch between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who’s the frontrunner to win the Republican Get together’s nomination regardless of his authorized woes.
Latest opinion polls indicated that whereas he may take voters from each candidates, it’s Biden whom he might damage essentially the most.
Amid a local weather of political disenchantment, Kennedy has projected himself as a political outsider and blasts “company kleptocracy” whereas touting his environmental credentials.
A longtime vaccine sceptic, he has been accused of spreading misinformation concerning the COVID-19 vaccine on various media shops, akin to conservative host Joe Rogan’s standard podcast. Rogan has additionally been accused of spreading falsehoods about COVID-19 vaccines on The Joe Rogan Expertise.
Whereas Kennedy’s detractors have branded him a conspiracy theorist, his supporters hail him as a fact teller.
So who is that this political freewheeler? The place does he come from? What does he suppose, and does he actually stand an opportunity of profitable?
What’s Kennedy’s background?
Kennedy’s household title evokes privilege and tragedy in equal measure. He was simply 9 years outdated when President John F Kennedy was shot lifeless in November 1963. His father, Robert, suffered the identical destiny whereas mounting his personal presidential bid 5 years later.
Grief-stricken, RFK Jr turned to heroin to “fill an empty area inside me”, lastly getting clear after an arrest for possession. His second spouse, Mary, mom of 4 of his six kids, additionally battled habit and died by suicide. He’s now married to Cheryl Hines, well-known for her position on the sitcom Curb Your Enthusiasm.
Kennedy suffers from a speech obstacle referred to as spasmodic dysphonia, which causes muscle tissue within the larynx to spasm, though the situation has not appeared to have dented his efficiency on exhibits hosted by the likes of Rogan and conservative Canadian best-selling creator Jordan Peterson, the place his shoot-from-the-hip fashion performs properly.
His controversial views have led his family to disavow him. “Bobby may share the identical title as our father, however he doesn’t share the identical values, imaginative and prescient or judgment,” his siblings stated in an announcement posted on X. “We denounce his candidacy and consider it to be perilous for our nation.”
Bobby may share the identical title as our father, however he doesn’t share the identical values, imaginative and prescient or judgment. Right now’s announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and consider it to be perilous for our nation. @roryekennedy @joekennedy @KKT_Kennedy pic.twitter.com/WJfGwSxN1z
— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) October 9, 2023
What does he stand for?
Not one for sticking to a script, Kennedy holds a blended bag report of usually contradictory views that make him tough to pigeonhole.
Take the surroundings. As soon as named a “Hero of the Planet” by Time journal, the previous environmental lawyer is thought for his campaigns to scrub up the nation’s waterways, scale back the usage of poisonous pesticides and promote renewables. But his calls for “freedom and free markets” as an answer to local weather change have raised fears that he would let trade set the tempo for curbing fossil gas use.
He has additionally threatened to repeal Biden’s signature local weather laws, which pushes for a transition to a inexperienced economic system.
His libertarian streak got here to the fore in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic when he accused the US authorities’s then-chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci, of “a historic coup d’etat in opposition to Western democracy”. He additionally claimed the virus was engineered to assault Caucasians and Black folks, sparing Chinese language folks and Ashkenazi Jews.
His views on the Israel-Palestine battle are sometimes contradictory. Kennedy supported Roger Waters final yr amid mass outrage over a gig that noticed the Pink Floyd co-founder donning Nazi apparel and projecting the brand of an Israeli arms agency on a large inflated pig. But, months later, the politician staunchly defended Israel’s no-limits conflict on Gaza, which has killed greater than 32,000 folks and pushed the besieged enclave to the verge of famine.
Isolationist by nature, he opposes assist to Ukraine, blaming the US and NATO for making a “proxy conflict” with Russia. In a current interview, he stated the billions in funding to the war-torn nation might be used for “therapeutic farms” for folks within the throes of habit and despair as he highlighted the fentanyl disaster.
“His process will likely be to straddle the massive chasm between RFK Jr, the very liberal, progressive environmentalist and the anti-vaccination crusader,” stated Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus within the Division of Political Science at Iowa State College.
On immigration, RFK Jr opposes Trump’s plan to erect a wall on the US border with Mexico. He has additionally been important of Biden’s dealing with of the border disaster. He has promised to safe the border with the usage of fashionable know-how, akin to cameras and detectors, to cease entry of undocumented immigrants. He backs increasing authorized immigration into the US.
Will voters purchase his blended messages?
That’s tough to foretell. In response to a current Reuters/Ipsos ballot, six in 10 respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the two-party system and needed a 3rd selection.
Each the Democrats and the Republicans see him as a risk. The previous are particularly frightened, fearing that the lure of his star-power title might siphon votes from Biden.
In response to a number of opinion polls launched in February and March, 40 p.c of Individuals have a beneficial opinion of RFK Jr. His approval rankings have come down since December when Gallup confirmed 52 p.c of Individuals appreciated him – greater than these for Trump or Biden.
“RFK Jr appeals to these Republican right-wing people who take pleasure in conspiracy theories, however he additionally appeals considerably to those that are actually far left,” stated Melissa Smith, creator of the 2022 ebook, Third Events, Outsiders, and Renegades: Trendy Challenges to the Two-Get together System in Presidential Elections. “It’s form of just like the far proper and the far left wrap round and may coalesce round a candidate like this.”
Kennedy usually cites help from Gen Z, the technology born from 1997 to 2012. His coverage concepts don’t look like geared in direction of the youth vote. He has, for instance, referred to as for a 15-week federal ban on abortion and blames video video games and rising use of antidepressants for gun violence. However his straight speak on financial inequality resonates with youthful folks fighting low wages and excessive housing prices.
Might he actually make an impression?
Whereas Republicans and Democrats are routinely on the presidential poll, outsider candidates must spend thousands and thousands accumulating signatures from registered voters and hiring legal professionals to combat off authorized challenges from established events over advanced poll entry guidelines that fluctuate from state to state.
“The electoral system was created by the 2 massive events to maintain third-party candidates from profitable,” Schmidt stated.
Thus far, Kennedy has certified for the poll in just one state, Utah. He has filed paperwork to create his personal We the Individuals Get together in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi and North Carolina and is organising the Texas Unbiased Get together within the Lone Star state.
His marketing campaign workforce instructed the The New York Occasions that it reckoned the strikes would slash the variety of signatures he wants throughout all 50 states by 330,000.
Even when he makes it onto ballots, analysts consider his probabilities of success are distant. Many cited the case of Ross Perot, the rich Texan who polled as a frontrunner in opposition to Invoice Clinton and George HW Bush in 1992. He fell wanting expectations, securing solely a fifth of the favored vote and failing to win a single electoral vote. A presidential candidate wants 270 electoral votes to win.
Nonetheless, Kennedy might make a distinction within the election. The common of opinion polls tracked by US election information website RealClearPolitics confirmed that whereas Trump leads Biden nationally by 2 share factors in a two-candidate race, that hole widens to greater than 4 factors if Kennedy can also be within the race.
In key battleground states akin to Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump’s lead over Biden grows if Kennedy and different candidates are thought of.
“Do I believe he’ll win? Completely not. Do I believe he may steal a number of votes? Sure. However will he actually impression the election? If historical past will be trusted, the reply isn’t any,” Smith stated.
Some other outdoors bets?
Kennedy shouldn’t be the one third-party candidate making a well-funded credible bid for the presidency. No Labels, a centrist group that has but to call a candidate, has certified in 14 states to this point. And Cornel West, an African American thinker and left-wing activist, launched his personal bid after breaking with the Inexperienced Get together.
However finally, Kennedy has one thing the others don’t. No matter his insurance policies, his hyperlinks to the closest factor the US has ever needed to a royal household might but work in his favour.