On April 22, the thirty ninth annual Train Balikatan, the “shoulder to shoulder” joint navy drills between the U.S. navy and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), started. This 12 months’s Balikatan workout routines are scheduled to run till Might 10, and are deliberate to be the biggest joint train between america and the Philippines so far.
This 12 months’s Balikatan is going on amid heightened tensions within the South China Sea, with the most recent assault on a Filipino vessel taking place lower than a month earlier than the joint workout routines began. On April 30, because the drills had been ongoing, Chinese language vessels once more fired water cannons at two Philippine patrol vessels, this time close to Scarborough Shoal.
Despite the fact that Balikatan is sort of a 40-year custom, this 12 months’s workout routines are bigger and extra pronounced than previous iterations, seemingly as a response to China’s aggressive habits within the South China Sea. This 12 months’s workout routines will embody a multilateral train with the U.S., Philippines, and French navy and can happen outdoors of the 12 nautical miles that mark the Philippines’ territorial waters however stay inside the Philippines’ unique financial zone (EEZ).
This train particularly is probably going to attract criticism from China, not solely as a result of France will probably be taking part in Balikatan for the primary time, but additionally as a result of China’s nine-dash line encroaches into the Philippines’ EEZ. Even when the trilateral train avoids the contested waters, the U.S. is on report as supporting the 2016 U.N. Everlasting Court docket of Arbitration ruling that the world throughout the nine-dash line doesn’t belong to China.
The workout routines will host 14 states as observers: Brunei, Canada, France, Germany, Nice Britain, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Whereas officers from the U.S. and the Philippines uncared for to call China as an aggressor on the Train Balikatan 39 Opening Ceremony, vice chairman of China’s Central Army Fee, Zhang Youxia, warned, “Actuality has proven that those that make deliberate provocations, stoke tensions, or help one aspect towards one other for egocentric beneficial properties will in the end solely damage themselves.”
Within the months main as much as Balikatan 2024, there have been quite a few situations of Chinese language and Filipino vessels getting concerned in altercations with each other. The Philippines accused the China Coast Guard of “harassing” civilian fishing vessels, and Chinese language and Philippines ships have collided on a number of events. On March 23, lower than a month earlier than the Balikatan workout routines kicked off, a China Coast Guard vessel fired water cannons at a civilian Filipino ship close to the Second Thomas Shoal, a part of the territory encompassed by China’s 9 sprint line.
These occasions are examples of China’s grey zone techniques, strategies of coercion that don’t meet the edge of an act of battle. By counting on grey zone techniques to intimidate vessels in contested waters, China is asserting dominance in contested territory and testing the boundaries of worldwide legislation.
The Biden administration responded to the March 23 occasion by reaffirming the U.S. dedication to the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Protection Treaty (MDT), clarifying the MDT extends to “armed assaults on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or plane — to incorporate these of its Coast Guard — within the Pacific, together with anyplace within the South China Sea.” The clarifying assertion is part of a bigger evolution in Philippine-U.S. relations. In April 2023, america and the Philippines introduced that Manila was giving the U.S. navy entry to 4 bases within the Philippines, bringing the entire to 9 Filipino bases the U.S. navy can function on. Three of the bases are of distinctive strategic significance, with two bases adjoining to Taiwan and one base trying towards the disputed Spratly Islands.
Whereas the Biden administration’s said “ironclad” help for the MDT is a transparent means of supporting a U.S. ally, the stance might also enhance the chance of heightened tensions within the South China Sea. If China needed to check how sturdy U.S. dedication to the Philippines is, the Biden administration’s assertion removes ambiguity from the equation and highlights a proverbial line that may very well be crossed. Within the unlikely occasion China targets a Filipino navy vessel on function, the U.S. can be pushed to uphold its finish of the MDT or carve out an exception to forestall additional escalation within the space.
A second danger is centered round unintentional miscalculation on the a part of the China Coast Guard. If the trilateral train between the U.S., Philippines, and France occurs in or close to contested waters, China could also be incentivized to reply with their very own navy workout routines in shut proximity or proceed with grey zone-based aggression towards Filipino civilian vessels after the Balikatan concludes. The extra usually Chinese language and Filipino ships face off within the South China Sea, the extra seemingly a mistake or miscalculation is to happen. For instance, China by chance focusing on a Filipino naval vessel as a substitute of a civilian vessel may result in the MDT being invoked.
Given the rising variety of bases the U.S. navy can entry and the present Balikatan workout routines, China is undoubtedly feeling strain from the evolving U.S.-Filipino partnership. Since China is a regional energy, it’s more likely to really feel compelled to reply to any perceived aggression that takes place in the course of the Balikatan workout routines. The U.S. and the Philippines are utilizing Balikatan to reveal their dedication to their alliance, try to discourage additional aggression within the South China Sea, and to gauge China’s response to the evolving partnership. Though the stakes appear excessive for all three nations, it’s in the very best curiosity of each celebration that tensions lower within the coming weeks.
To stop an overreaction from China relating to the multilateral train within the Philippines’ EEZ, the U.S. and the Philippines ought to prioritize clear communication with China to reiterate the train is just not a direct risk to China’s safety. In the long run, the U.S. ought to weigh the dangers and rewards of gaining access to extra bases within the Philippines, as antagonizing China could also be in nobody’s greatest curiosity.