Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is called a person who likes to play for time and postpone massive choices. However he might not be capable of try this for much longer.
Domestically, his coalition companions on the far proper threaten to interrupt up the federal government if he agrees to a cease-fire and doesn’t attempt to clear Hamas out of Rafah, in southern Gaza.
Militarily, the strategic logic is to finish the dismantling of Hamas by taking Rafah and controlling the border with Egypt. However diplomatically, his allies, particularly the USA, are pushing him to agree on a cease-fire, and skip Rafah and the potential civilian casualties a large-scale operation would trigger.
So Mr. Netanyahu is now negotiating and maneuvering on a number of fronts directly, all of which have a big impact on the conduct of the struggle and his personal future as prime minister.
His latest warnings to Palestinians in elements of Rafah to maneuver to areas Israel has designated as protected, adopted late Monday evening by the Israeli army’s seizure of the Gazan aspect of the Egyptian border, signaled to his far-right authorities coalition, to Hamas and to the Biden administration that he would proceed to prioritize Israel’s safety pursuits. Extra essential, Israel’s extra slender struggle cupboard, which incorporates senior opposition figures, backed these choices.
The seizure of the Rafah crossing to Egypt, to attempt to full Israel’s safety management of Gaza’s borders, has, for now, prevented a large-scale and contentious army operation in Rafah itself, which is full of displaced civilians. It could sign that Israel is getting ready in the end to comply with at the least a short lived cease-fire in Gaza, at the same time as the result of these negotiations stays unsure.
“Netanyahu is being pulled in varied instructions,” with stress mounting on him to reply, mentioned Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel now at Princeton.
Foremost is Mr. Netanyahu’s need to keep away from new elections, which may imply lack of energy and a renewal of the assorted courtroom instances towards him. “Political survival all the time ranks first in Netanyahu’s calculations,” Mr. Kurtzer mentioned.
Then there are the competing pressures on him from “extremists in his personal coalition who need to proceed the struggle,” he mentioned, and from the hostage households, who need the federal government to prioritize a cease-fire and a launch of extra folks seized in Israel throughout the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assaults.
Externally, the stress comes from Biden administration officers and a few in Congress “who’re shedding endurance over the humanitarian scenario,” he famous. They need a cease-fire and oppose a serious onslaught on Rafah. Lastly there may be “the actual, persevering with menace of escalation, particularly from Hezbollah,” he mentioned.
Here’s a nearer have a look at the political, army and diplomatic issues Mr. Netanyahu confronts as he weighs his subsequent steps.
Politics
Mr. Netanyahu is determined to carry collectively his governing coalition, which has 64 seats within the 120-seat Knesset, or Parliament, a slender majority.
His far-right companions, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, collectively management 14 seats, and so they have vowed to depart the federal government if the prime minister makes too many concessions and agrees to a cease-fire in Gaza, leaving Hamas to say victory. They’ve insisted, as Mr. Netanyahu has additionally achieved, that the army will transfer on Rafah.
Gadi Eisenkot, a former basic and opposition member of the struggle cupboard, accused the 2 males of “political blackmail” and of standing in the way in which of the return of at the least some hostages.
However new elections would nearly definitely produce a brand new coalition with out Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich, so Mr. Netanyahu has some room to maneuver.
Agreeing to a type of non permanent cease-fire in phases, as proposed within the present negotiations, may enable Israel to cope with what it says are the 4 Hamas battalions in and underneath Rafah at a a lot slower tempo, over many weeks, particularly now that the strip of Gaza alongside the Egyptian border has been seized.
It could additionally deliver extra hostages house — not all of them, however a number of the most weak, in addition to some who’re useless and could possibly be buried by their households. That might assist diminish the anti-government rallies usually spearheaded by the hostage households.
It could additionally go some solution to pacify President Biden, who may declare a diplomatic victory with a cease-fire, which might additionally enable far more humanitarian help to circulation into Gaza, enable extra civilians to maneuver to safer areas and even to the north, after they’re screened by Israeli troops, and keep away from a full-scale assault on Rafah.
“Netanyahu is in no hurry to finish the struggle,” mentioned Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator who now leads the U.S./Center East Undertaking, a nonprofit coverage institute. “He doesn’t desire a cease-fire deal that threatens his coalition or his capability to proceed the struggle after a pause. He needs to tug all of it out, as a result of as soon as the struggle is over, what’s the excuse for not having new elections?”
Army
Israeli army officers and analysts emphasize that chopping off the smuggling of arms and gear from Egypt by way of the tunnels underneath Rafah is strategically extra essential to Israel than the Hamas fighters left in Rafah.
Regardless of Egyptian denials of intensive smuggling into Gaza, Israeli officers consider that a lot of the extraordinary arsenal and the constructing provides that Hamas collected in Gaza got here by way of tunnels from Egypt.
“If we finish the struggle with out blocking the tunnels, we might allow Hamas or another terrorist group within the Strip to rebuild their army capacities,” mentioned Kobi Michael of the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research, a analysis group in Tel Aviv.
Nitzan Nuriel, a reserve brigadier basic and former director of the counterterrorism bureau of the Israeli Nationwide Safety Council, labored with Mr. Netanyahu for a number of years. “Rafah is essential not due to the 4 Hamas battalions which might be nonetheless there,” he mentioned. “Rafah is essential as a result of the message to the Palestinians who reside in Gaza is that Hamas won’t be able to manage Gaza for good.”
In any other case, he mentioned, Gazans would “keep afraid of Hamas and subsequently will cooperate with Hamas.”
Even a modest operation in Rafah “suits a number of of Netanyahu’s objectives concurrently,” mentioned Natan Sachs, director of the Middle for Center East Coverage on the Brookings Establishment.
Like many Israeli officers, together with those that desire a cease-fire deal now, Mr. Sachs mentioned, “Netanyahu genuinely believes an operation in Rafah is central to Israel’s general objectives — not merely in going after the remaining Hamas forces, however in chopping off their capability to resupply by way of smuggling by way of the Egyptian border.”
The army operation “additionally places stress on Hamas to relent on a few of its extra expansive calls for within the cease-fire negotiations,” Mr. Sachs mentioned.
Regardless of severe American issues, a restricted operation now in Rafah fits Mr. Netanyahu politically, he mentioned, “with a proper flank that objects to a deal now, earlier than the principle operational aim is achieved, and dealing with public anger over the truth that Hamas continues to be standing, if severely broken.”
Diplomacy
Mr. Netanyahu is underneath huge stress diplomatically — from allies like Washington and Berlin, from the United Nations, from the European Union and from regional Sunni Arab states — to keep away from a serious operation in Rafah.
They need him to permit in far more humanitarian help to Gaza and comply with a cope with Hamas that would, at the least, promise what the present draft textual content calls a “sustainable calm,” moderately than a everlasting cease-fire.
However such a deal nonetheless wouldn’t resolve the elemental divide between Israel and Hamas over tips on how to conclude the battle.
Hamas needs the struggle to finish now, with the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Gaza and the discharge of all hostages in change for numerous Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Israel needs to make sure that any cease-fire is non permanent, in order that Hamas can’t declare victory and start to revive its management over Gaza.
Nonetheless, after Hamas’s most up-to-date concessions, coupled with the Israeli army strikes to manage the Egyptian border, a cease-fire deal appears far more attainable than earlier than — maybe even fascinating for Mr. Netanyahu.
However Gazans are cautious and mistrustful of Israeli statements. Mkhaimar Abusada is a Gazan political scientist whose college within the enclave, Al-Azhar, has been destroyed within the preventing. Now in Cairo together with his household, Mr. Abusada says he’s satisfied that “it doesn’t matter what the worldwide neighborhood says, Netanyahu goes to enter Rafah.”
Mr. Netanyahu “needs to maintain his coalition authorities, to keep away from early elections, to remain prime minister and never go to jail,” he mentioned. “I simply hope he does it in a approach that offers in a humane approach with the Palestinian civilians.”
However in the long run, Mr. Abusada mentioned, Mr. Netanyahu “and Israel can’t be victorious after this struggle, not with this a lot dying and destruction, with all of the Palestinian civilians and youngsters useless.”