Ought to all the pieces go to plan, by the tip of the twice-in-a-decade assembly, the 69-year-old might be reconfirmed because the occasion’s basic secretary, cementing his place as China’s strongest chief since Mao Zedong.
Safety has been stepped up round Beijing’s Tiananmen Sq., the place on Sunday virtually 2,300 delegates from each province in China will collect on the imposing Nice Corridor of the Folks.
And as Xi continues to insist the nation sticks to its coverage of containing and eliminating the coronavirus inside its borders, the Congress will happen underneath strict well being protocols.
In a extremely choreographed, largely closed-door conclave, the contributors will decide members of the occasion’s round 200-member Central Committee, which in flip selects the 25-person Politburo and its omnipotent Standing Committee — the nation’s highest management physique.
However in actuality, “all the pieces has been performed out upfront, as a result of the congress doesn’t happen till the factions have agreed”, sinologist Jean-Philippe Beja instructed AFP.
Critics say Xi has additionally eradicated any potential political rivals lately, particularly by means of his long-running marketing campaign towards corruption.
The speech Xi makes on the primary day will give an evaluation of the earlier time period but additionally a roadmap for the following 5 years, for each occasion and nation.
On the 2017 Congress, Xi promised a brand new period of socialism with Chinese language traits and promised Beijing would interact with the world.
“Openness brings progress, whereas self-seclusion leaves one behind,” he stated. “China won’t shut its door to the world; we’ll solely change into increasingly more open.”
However 5 years later, China has performed the other.
As the remainder of the world has step by step returned to pre-pandemic norms, Beijing has caught to a hardline zero-Covid coverage characterised by journey restrictions, compulsory quarantines, and repeated lockdowns.
In addition to inflicting widespread hardship for Chinese language residents, the technique has additionally spooked the enterprise group.
Financial progress has stalled at a time when different long-running issues, similar to the actual property downturn, are coming to a head.
“Beijing’s zero-Covid coverage has discouraged much-needed funding and didn’t win the hearts and minds of younger Chinese language, who’ve suffered essentially the most economically and socially,” stated Yu Jie on the Asia-Pacific programme at suppose tank Chatham Home.
“Many Chinese language fear about seeing a return to a interval of isolation” not seen in China since earlier than the nation’s opening up within the late Seventies, sinologist Beja instructed AFP.
China’s relations with the USA have additionally soured additional over the past 5 years, and Xi’s extra assertive international coverage has sparked disputes in all places from India to Australia and Canada.
Western international locations have pushed again towards the more and more aggressive rhetoric deployed towards the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing sees as its territory to be taken by pressure if crucial.
They’ve additionally accused China of widespread human rights abuses, significantly within the western area of Xinjiang.
“President Xi’s precedent-breaking third time period bodes sick for human rights in China and world wide,” stated Yaqiu Wang, senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch.
With 96.7 million members, China’s Communist Get together is likely one of the world’s largest political organisations, however its interior workings stay largely opaque.
Observers can solely guess on the future composition of the Standing Committee.
Because the Nineties, Politburo members have usually retired after two phrases — however a 3rd time period for Xi would break that precedent, that means even lower than traditional may be divined concerning the subsequent crop of leaders.
The selection of people that will encompass Xi might be essential, stated Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute.
“I feel Xi might be cautious in sending a transparent message that nobody elevated to the Politburo Standing Committee might be a successor on the twenty first Congress,” he stated.
The Politburo lineup might be revealed the day after the assembly ends.
If, as anticipated, Xi Jinping stays on as basic secretary, he’ll then be confirmed as president for one more time period on the annual assembly of China’s Nationwide Folks’s Congress subsequent March.
Although the twentieth Get together Congress will solely assure yet one more five-year time period, many suppose he’ll keep in energy for for much longer.
“The uncertainty is absolute,” stated political scientist Jean-Pierre Cabestan.
“However given the promotion of Xi Jinping Thought, the restoration of the character cult, the significance of his energy on the coronary heart of the occasion’s management, this implies somebody who will keep in energy for a very long time, perhaps for all times.”