Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the moment publicly announced that Russia’s long-expected Donbas offensive has now begun, with Russia boosting offensive operations all through japanese Ukraine. What exactly meaning will not be but clear; whereas Russian missile and artillery strikes have escalated previously few days, the small print on Russian floor assaults aren’t but recognized. The latest ISW report remains skeptical that Russia can be any extra profitable in these assaults than in its failed Kyiv operations, although heavy casualties on each side are all however assured.
One report suggests Russia could also be making an attempt to encompass and take Slovyansk, southeast of Izyum; that is at odds with earlier intelligence suggesting—implausibly—that the Russian offensive can be geared toward taking far-off Dnipro, bypassing Ukraine’s most entrenched japanese defenses totally. A Slovyansk assault can be a extra incremental strategy, however Ukrainian defenses there are sturdy.
Ukraine will not be solely defending, nonetheless. It is also persevering with to press Russian provide strains, a tactic that proved devastatingly efficient in degrading Russian forces round Kyiv to the purpose that Russia was compelled to retreat. Now these operations are concentrating on Russian strains resulting in Izyum, a metropolis not too long ago captured by Russia that has been the staging floor for these latest tried Russian drives southward.
There stay few situations by which Russian kleptocrat Vladimir Putin can carve out a win, regardless of how the conflict unfolds from right here. The sanctions at the moment dooming Russian makes an attempt to switch the gear being misplaced are prone to stay in impact for a few years to return. Whereas Putin has now arrested quite a few of his personal officers in an try to seek out scapegoats for Russia’s shows of army incompetence, the various alternatives for Russia to deescalate and declare partial victory at the moment are behind us. Throwing Russian troops haphazardly towards the frontlines in an try and exhaust Ukraine territorial protection forces no matter Russian prices seems to be one of many few plans Putin’s handpicked and thieving army leaders consider they could have the talents to perform.
A few of at the moment’s information: