A deeper descent into authoritarianism, or the extension of a presidency that the majority residents imagine has improved the nation. Those had been the 2 predominant reactions in El Salvador when President Nayib Bukele mentioned final week that he plans to hunt re-election in 2024.
For human rights defenders, Bukele’s announcement raises the danger of slipping again in direction of a darkish interval within the nation’s historical past when 75,000 individuals had been killed throughout a 12-year civil battle that resulted in 1992.
The peace accord to finish the violence established clear democratic norms to assist the nation keep away from one other bloody confrontation, comparable to limiting the navy’s political energy and requiring reforms to the judicial system.
However Bukele has slowly eroded these guidelines since coming to energy in 2019, rights activist Celia Medrano informed Al Jazeera, and violating the precept that bars re-election is simply the most recent instance.
“El Salvador as a rustic should hit all-time low, as occurred to us 30 to 40 years in the past [during the civil war], so that folks start to know and react to what’s occurring,” mentioned Medrano.
For a lot of, the president’s plan to hunt re-election didn’t come as a shock. Congress is managed by Bukele’s Nuevas Concepts social gathering. Legislators have eliminated the legal professional basic and constitutional courtroom judges and changed them with loyalists. And the constitutional courtroom dominated final 12 months that Bukele can run for re-election — though authorized consultants dispute this.
The Salvadoran structure bans consecutive re-election, though it permits former presidents to run for workplace once more after two presidential phrases have handed.
“The constitutional courtroom can’t subject rulings that overtly go in opposition to the structure,” mentioned Leonor Arteaga, a Salvadoran lawyer and director of the Impunity and Grave Human Rights Violations programme on the Due Technique of Legislation Basis.
Widespread help
But with Bukele’s recognition charges hovering — he ended his third 12 months in workplace this Might with an 87 % approval ranking, in keeping with a survey by Salvadoran media outlet La Prensa Grafica — most residents are content material to let him bend the foundations.
“If he submits himself to the [electoral] course of, like all the opposite candidates, will probably be the individuals with their votes who determine,” 58-year-old Bukele voter Amadeo Lopez informed Al Jazeera.
Bukele’s authorities additionally has defended his determination to hunt re-election.
Vice President Felix Ulloa has mentioned it will not be unconstitutional. “One of many issues that has involved me my total life has been to respect the rule of the democratic and constitutional state,” Ulloa mentioned, as reported by The Related Press information company.
Human rights teams disagree, however there are few choices accessible to contest Bukele’s plan.
The Salvadoran structure permits for the best to “rebel” within the case of re-election, however Medrano mentioned this could be unlikely within the present political local weather.
“Breaking the foundations of the sport [could unleash] a brand new wave of violence that takes us again to the situations of confrontation that the nation skilled earlier than,” she mentioned.
‘Not regular’
Consultants say Bukele is following a playbook utilized by different authoritarian leaders in Latin America who had been elected via democratic means however then eroded state establishments and altered the foundations to permit themselves to remain in energy.
In 2009, Venezuelans voted in a referendum to abolish time period limits for elected officers, paving the way in which for Hugo Chavez to stay in energy till his demise.
In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega lobbied for a change to the structure, permitted in 2014, to permit presidents to be re-elected indefinitely; he’s now serving his fourth consecutive time period in workplace.
And former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, now awaiting trial on drug costs within the US, secured a second time period in a extremely contested 2017 election after a controversial ruling two years earlier paved the way in which for his candidacy — regardless of a ban on re-election within the Honduran structure.
“Historical past has proven us that when a president needs to remain in energy utilizing non-legal means, comparable to altering the structure and the rule of legislation, that solely means extra human rights violations, extra focus of energy in a single particular person, and that the inhabitants goes to be left with out rights,” mentioned Arteaga. “That shouldn’t be seen as regular.”
Public opposition
The president’s workplace didn’t instantly reply to Al Jazeera’s request for touch upon criticism of his plan to hunt re-election.
Whereas Bukele continues to take pleasure in fashionable help in El Salvador, Medrano mentioned cracks in his administration are beginning to present.
A legislation that made Bitcoin authorized foreign money, which not too long ago marked its one-year anniversary, has been extensively unpopular amongst Salvadorans, whereas growing inflation and an financial downturn have affected the day by day lives of many voters.
In a latest survey (PDF) by the Institute for Public Opinion at San Salvador’s Central American College (IUDOP), 30 % of respondents mentioned the financial scenario worsened throughout Bukele’s third 12 months in workplace, in contrast with about 13 % the 12 months earlier than.
El Salvador additionally noticed certainly one of its deadliest days in almost 20 years on the finish of March, prompting Bukele’s social gathering to subject a state of exception that suspended sure civil liberties and has led to mass arrests and accusations of human rights abuses.
The measure stays in place greater than 5 months later. And whereas 90 % of Salvadorans mentioned the state of exception was serving to to enhance safety, in keeping with the IUDOP ballot, it has additionally drawn protests.
On September 15, the day Bukele introduced he would search re-election, opposition teams, together with battle veterans, employee’s unions and members of the family of individuals arrested throughout the state of exception, marched via the capital to protest the federal government.
Towards that backdrop, Arteaga mentioned Bukele’s marketing campaign announcement aimed “to silence these voices and reinforce that he’s right here to remain and will probably be right here for a few years”.
Though she recognised the president’s sturdy mandate, Arteaga predicted “darkish years” forward to come back for the nation. “The management of the establishments and the assault on each voice that’s crucial goes to accentuate.”