Some analysts consider that Mr. Putin is risking the same destiny. “He’ll lose Russia due to Ukraine,” stated Mr. Fishman, who has simply completed a e book about why democracy did not take maintain in Russia after the Soviet collapse. Others are much less emphatic, particularly within the quick time period, and be aware the favored indicators of assist for him inside Russia. Nonetheless, they warning that Mr. Putin is uncharacteristically taking part in a poker recreation with an unpredictable ending.
“This has been a significant failure in Europe’s greatest land battle since 1945, and that could be a large failure,” stated Clifford Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political threat evaluation agency in Washington. “I might not wager futures in Russian political stability over a five-year interval.”
Whereas Mr. Putin has publicly emphasised the safety risk posed by a westward leaning Ukraine as a cause for going to battle, others say his deepest concern is the doable political fallout from dwelling subsequent door to a boisterous democracy with first rate financial prospects.
“Putin’s final nightmare is a coloration revolution in Russia, and that’s the lens by which he views folks voting in Ukraine,” stated Mr. Kupchan. “As a result of it’s so shut, culturally, the specter of contagion as he perceives it’s even better.”
Mr. Putin’s successes are legion, particularly his complete profession arc from an obscure, midlevel intelligence agent — compelled to drive a taxi to make ends meet after the collapse of the Soviet Bloc — to turning into one of many longest-running leaders ever to occupy the Kremlin.
But in Ukraine, Mr. Putin, 69, has taken repeated missteps.
In 2004, he campaigned personally within the presidential election on behalf of his most well-liked candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, whom he twice congratulated on his win. However widespread accusations of voting fraud sparked a nationalist backlash and the Orange Revolution, with avenue protests culminating in the end within the election of Viktor A. Yushchenko (who was poisoned throughout the marketing campaign) as president in a Western-oriented authorities.