Fruits: “The culminating level in army technique is the purpose at which a army pressure is now not capable of carry out its operations. On the offensive, the culminating level marks the time when the attacking pressure can now not proceed its advance, due to provide issues, the opposing pressure, or the necessity for relaxation.”
Historians will sometime mark the day Russia formally culminated in its “particular army operation,” and after they do, I think it’ll be this primary week in September. Whereas Russia continues to be spasming failed offensive operations round jap Donbas, it’s been weeks since they’ve notched any progress, and two months since their final vital victory—the conquest of Lysychansk on July 3.
It’s no coincidence that HIMARS entered fight that very same week.
Now, after two months of relentless assault on Russia’s provide strains, provide depots, command and management facilities, bridges, and air defenses, Russia is useless within the water. And having rushed the majority of its forces into the Kherson entice, Ukraine is making good points alongside each entrance within the struggle. Let’s systematically overview what issues in all probability appear to be, remembering that Ukraine hardly ever proclaims the liberation of a city except it’s totally safe, and the entrance strains have moved considerably away. So that is culled from a mix of Ukrainian bulletins, oftentimes studying between the strains, geolocated footage from OSINT sources (open supply intelligence), and even Russian experiences. Let’s go!
KHARKIV
From Ukrainian Common Workers:
On different instructions, the enemy attacked army and civilian infrastructure utilizing tanks, fight automobiles, barrel and jet artillery, specifically: […]
on the Kharkiv route – Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv, Slatyne, Sosnivka, Udy, Petrivka, Velyki Prohody, Stary Saltiv, Andriivka; [my emphasis]
Let’s have a look at the map of Kharkiv:
Kozacha Lopan is often thought of Russian territory. So both Russia attacked itself, or Ukraine is contesting the town. To be clear, this doesn’t imply that Ukraine has captured it. However Russia wouldn’t be shelling the city or its environment except Ukrainian forces have been out of their defensive trenches and pushing ahead on the entrance.
That’s not all, that Common Workers experiences mentions Udy, which can be Russian held—that purple dot to Kozacha Lopan’s higher left.
IZYUM
Right here’s the most recent map:
Ukrainian Common Workers has often reported Russian shelling of Dovhen’ke. (Right here’s my authentic story on the protection of Dovhen’ke.) Whereas I don’t imagine it’s in Ukrainian fingers, I additionally don’t assume it’s underneath Russian management. It’s a moon-scaped pile of rubble at this level. We even have current geolocated video of Ukrainian shelling north of the city here. (That video additionally reveals the randomness of struggle—an artillery spherical lands smack in the midst of 4 Russian squaddies—three go down, the opposite runs away. The good one was the man hanging again from the gang.) Earlier Ukrainian shelling was south of the city.
Dolyna has been the Dovhen’ke of the summer time, internet hosting each day assaults, all of them unsuccessful. Truthfully, unsure why Russia bothers. The unique plan was to go down that freeway to the dual fortress cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, however that dream is lengthy useless. It took Russia two months to seize Dovhen’ke (pre-war inhabitants 800) on June 11, and Russia has been caught ever since. Dolyna is just too small to even have a web-based inhabitants estimate. And but Russia was speculated to seize Slovyansk (pop. 111K) and Kramatorsk (pop. 157,000)?
Anyway, it seems to be like time to erase the pink “contested” in that plot of territory simply north of Dolyna. That is about 2 kilometers north of Dolyna, and appears fairly darn safe underneath Ukrainian management. (Extra proof here.)
Additionally, whereas this video hasn’t been geolocated, the unit taking the video is understood to be working within the Izyum route. As soon as once more, it reveals Ukrainian forces on the offensive, taking Russian defensive positions:
Transferring on…
LUHANSK, DONBAS
This one is sort of fascinating. That is on the opposite facet of the Siversky Donetsk river—the facet Russia spent months taking. Maps will mark it as contested, however I think one thing else is going on: it’s only a “fuck you” incursion by Ukraine into an space fully emptied of Russian forces.
Right here is video of a small raiding party crossing the river towards Ozerne. Be aware the shortage of pontoon bridge or any sizable pressure. It might be near-impossible to assist an precise liberation of those cities. So what doubtless occurred is that this particular forces unit crossed over for reconnaissance, or to raid, or on another mission, and so they discovered the place fully empty. They wandered over to next-door Brusivka, additionally empty. They even supposed wandered as much as Yampil and located it empty.
All of those are “liberated,” certain, however probably not. Russia thought them safe from assault and have left them undefended. Leaking this video is thus attention-grabbing. If Ukraine had the power to actually liberate that territory, it might’ve saved that video quiet and launched a extra vital operation. That they didn’t, assuming it’s not simply dangerous OpSec, I’m guessing they’re daring Russia to ship forces to the realm. Given Russia’s manpower shortages in every single place, they both additional skinny out the prevailing entrance strains to station troops on this space, or they go away it unguarded and Ukraine can ultimately transfer in.
DONETSK, DONBAS
The Russian push from Popasna towards Bakhmut has been painfully gradual and grinding, however it has given Russia its solely territorial good points of late.
Be mindful, Russia took Popasna on Could 9. Bakhmut is barely 32 kilometers away. So this progress is sloooooow. However the entrance was shifting, in contrast to the remainder of the nation. But a number of days in the past we acquired a touch that issues had modified. A preferred Russian army reporter with round half 1,000,000 followers on Telegram reported that the poorly educated territorial protection forces that had held the strains at Soledar had been rotated out.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine just lately made a rotation of personnel. Motivated fighters entered the place. If earlier we talked about retention teams consisting of poorly educated reservists. Now they’ve been changed by a brand new set, outfitted with NATO weapons.
The brand new shift switched to the ways of aggressive protection. Small teams usually are not afraid to return near our positions and attempt to take particular person factors in a rush. We walked round acquainted locations. If earlier they went there in the course of the day, now they transfer solely at evening
You’ll be able to sense the panic. “Outfitted with NATO weapons” clearly communicates that they know the way poorly Russian gear compares. These new troopers are educated! In contrast to the Russian cannon fodder that was failing to dislodge poorly educated Ukrainian defenders. The reporter additionally famous that Ukraine additionally beefed up its artillery and counter-battery capabilities at this location. However most intriguing was this concept that these new forces have been engaged in “aggressive protection.”
Effectively, that is what that appears like:
Not solely does this footage present Ukrainians attacking fastened Russian defensive positions (reportedly sneaking up behind them, therefore the chaotic, non-existent Russian reponse), however it was geolocated east of last-known Russian positions. Russians would possibly need to name that “aggressive protection,” that appears extra like a localized offensive to me. The same seems to be happening on the southeastern fringe of the entrance.
Now, identical to up north, I think these aren’t deliberate strategic offensives, moderately Ukraine discovering defensive strains starved of troops and/or ammunition, with weak Russian artillery assist. These are opportunistic tactical advances.
By the way, after Lysychansk fell, I stated the Ukrainian defensive position from Sivers’ok, to Bakhmut, to Toretsk would by no means fall. My logic was easy—Ukrainian artillery would make development very troublesome. Knock on wooden, I’m nonetheless not unsuitable on that…
Additionally, issues that make you go hmmmm….
ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SOUTHERN DONETSK, DONBAS
That is my favourite entrance, strategically. I posited again in late July that this is perhaps the main focus of Ukraine’s first large counteroffensive. I used to be (seemingly) unsuitable about that, however that doesn’t imply that Ukraine isn’t creating hassle right here.
Of specific significance are Polohy, on the right-edge of this map (I by chance reduce off the title and am too drained to repair), and Tokmak. In actual fact, Tokmak is perhaps probably the most strategically important cities in all of southern Ukraine. Take a look at southern Ukraine’s rail strains:
Polohy would possibly provide Russia’s entrance in southeastern Ukraine, however Tokmak provides EVERYTHING to its west. With Ukraine working over bridges crossing from Crimea, taking Tokmak would full the logistical encirclement of that whole mass of territory, together with the majority of Kherson oblast, south of Kherson metropolis, and the strategic metropolis of Melitopol (additionally house to Ukraine’s strongest and most energetic resistance motion).
As of now, Ukraine is pushing towards each Polohy and Tokmak, and each are common targets of HIMARS o’clock.
Each of these yellow patches on the map are Ukrainian counteroffensive actions. I’m actually hoping that column of Ukrainian reinforcement talked about above are literally headed on this route.
KHERSON
OMG, Kherson. FINALLY!
For starters, Ukraine made a uncommon liberation announcement, declaring “Vysokopillia is Ukraine.”
This wasn’t simply the northern fringe of Russian positions in Kherson oblast, it was on the border of the oblast. Keep in mind after we questioned why Russia was pushing north towards Krivyi Rih? They weren’t. They have been pushing to the executive borders, so they may then annex your complete oblast by way of sham referendum. As such, this was a closely fortified place, with reportedly a number of thousand Russian troopers. And never simply any troopers, however their “elite” VDV airborne troops.
With the collapse of that defensive position, there’s only a bunch of open house for kilometers.
Ukraine is about to say an enormous chunk of territory again. As a lot of a morale enhance as that is perhaps, that is the way more essential growth:
That’s the ol’ bridgehead close to Davydiv Brid, abruptly gaining traction. This map is definitely conservative, doesn’t embrace Ukraine’s liberation of Blahodativka, the left/western tip of that rising salient. (Ukraine Warfare Map above has it, if you wish to go spy its precise location.)
The story of Blahodativka is f’n hilarious—Russia constructed a pontoon bridge to try to flank the Ukrainian bridgehead. Ukraine stated “MINE!” and now they’ve two bridges widening the salient and supplying the breakthrough. That is it:
Let’s take one other have a look at Defmon’s map:
All these Russian defenders north of that salient at the moment are imperiled. They already should fall again to a second line of protection given the autumn of Vysokopillia. Now they should determine whether or not they actually try to maintain that line, and threat encirclement, or fall again all the way in which to Kherson metropolis.
Professional-Russian sources are filled with cope. There isn’t any bridgehead! Okay there’s however Russia killed everybody! Truly scratch that, that is Russia’s good Battle-of-the-Bulge plan to encircle Ukrainian troops to remove them! And but, all through all that, some actual info typically seep by means of, even if by chance:
Rybar, the most important and finest identified Russian army struggle blogger, says he’s misplaced contact with all of his army sources within the cities inside that increasing Ukrainian bridgehead/salient, and he decides that the whole lot is fantastic and “proceed[s] from one of the best and imagine that the [Russian] counterattack was profitable.” Shedding contact with all his sources doubtless means they’re all useless, but pro-Russia Twitter and Telegram gleefully distributes his map erasing all Ukrainian good points.
Right here is the Wagner Telegram channel Gray Zone, on Russian VDV’s final stand within the bridgehead.
In actuality, there are from 5,000 to six,000 enemy troopers alongside the entrance line of the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih route (with out villages). They superior by means of Ingulets with a complete variety of as much as two armoured personnel carriers [likely means units]. The particular forces troopers, who knowingly revealed the enemy’s plans for getting ready for offensive operations, began requesting artillery assist, however the artillery within the type of the “200 drunk” [200th] merely remained silent for a number of hours. Aviation, you say?! You’ll be able to neglect about aviation on this route, even non-spontaneous methods with pitching and firing will be seen right here a bit extra typically than observing a full moon. Consequently, as written by a colleague from the “Particular Function Channel”, after attempting to comprise the offensive, the troopers of the VDV Forces and Particular Forces had nothing left however to retreat to the ready defence strains as a way to keep the fight effectiveness of the items. However once more, as my colleague stated earlier, not all of them got here out. And these fallen warriors deserve everlasting glory!
They blame alcohol for the shortage of artillery assist (clearly a standard downside), however that artillery would possibly now not exist. That is what occurs when all of the bridges supplying this entrance are reduce, and Russia should depend upon barges and an inefficient air bridge.
Gray Zone additionally admits, albeit couched in propaganda to melt the blow, that Russia misplaced not less than 125 troopers and 10 armored automobiles. (Ukraine supposedly misplaced 5 occasions as a lot, so it’s all good!) Even assuming undercounting, that’s vital losses out of your finest unit.
Additionally, numerous POWs.
There are extra POW movies, however there’s no cause to exult. I like them captured higher than useless, and that’s that.
The climate over Kherson oblast options thick, heavy clouds. So we are able to’t use NASA FIRMS knowledge to get a greater sense of the entrance line. The climate forecast is partly cloudy river the subsequent a number of days earlier than rain arrives subsequent weekend. So hopefully that offers us a greater thought of the true state of affairs.
To loop again round to my opening theme—Russia superior nowhere, and is barely attacking anyplace anymore. But it has doubtless misplaced extra land the previous couple of days than it had gained the final two months. Provide and command and management points received’t assist issues. Appears to be like like end result, doesn’t it?
Take pleasure in the remainder of your vacation weekend! This can set a pleasant tone:
Phew. That was … lots!